The July 2013 inflation rate turned out lower than analysts' estimates. Headline Inflation hit a 44-month low at 2.00 percent YoY, after having been slowed for 7 months running. It fell from 2.25 percent YoY reported in June. Meanwhile, July Core Inflation had dropped to 0.85 percent YoY – the lowest in 39 months – from 0.88 percent YoY in June, thus being the third consecutive month that the rate was below 1.0 percent (a Reuters poll gave a forecast of 2.1 percent Headline Inflation YoY, and 0.9 percent Core Inflation YoY).
The Consumer Price Index, however, inched up marginally 0.1 percent MoM. This stable price situation was the result of counterbalanced falling food and beverage prices versus higher retail fuel prices in step with the global trend.
KResearch forecasts that our inflation rate should remain comfortable for many more months, given slowing domestic spending. Regarding the overall 2013 outlook, we estimate that Headline Inflation will average 2.5 percent, or ranging between 2.2-2.7 percent; Core Inflation should stand at 1.1 percent, or within a range of 0.9-1.3 percent. During 4Q13, we should see inflation rates progressing upward.
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