Declines seen in Thai economic indicators yet again for June have led KResearch to expect that our economy may resume growth of only 6.0 percent YoY for 2Q14. Although that figure is below the 1.0 percent YoY growth projected earlier, it is well above the contraction of 0.6 percent YoY recorded during 1Q14.
Over the remainder of 2014, KResearch has assessed that the Thai economy will probably grow within a range of 3.3-4.7 percent YoY because the overall economy should be supported by gradually recoveries in major domestic growth engines as a result of an improving political environment. Private consumption may benefit from government's initiatives to ease the cost of living. Private investment should pick up gradually and exports will likely grow on a rebound foreseen in key trade partner economies, plus a low 2013 base.
As for 2014, we maintain our forecast for the Thai economy at 2.3 percent growth YoY, or within 1.8-2.6 percent YoY. However, we will have to monitor certain economic developments very closely, especially exports that may be hindered by sluggish demand from China, limited fishery product supplies amid outbreaks of disease, eroding Thai export competitiveness and trade partners' responses toward our handling of foreign workers. In addition, private consumption may not as yet recover fully due to lofty household debt and steady declines in farm income as compared to 2013.