Thailand's Inflation slipped into negative territory for the first time in 64 months at (-)0.41% percent YoY for January after domestic retail oil prices fell steadily over recent months. However, Core Inflation inched upward slightly to 1.64 percent YoY, suggesting that non-energy product prices continued to rise during the month.
We at KResearch expect that Headline Inflation will likely remain negative throughout 1H15, with the monthly reading varying around (-)0.2 percent YoY to (-)0.8 percent YoY. Negative inflation readings may not pose any deflation risk because household spending continues to improve.
It is seen that this situation has been caused primarily by plummeting oil prices, since the prices of other product categories have not yet fallen in concert with them. Nevertheless, a low 2H14 base will help keep inflation in positive territory during 2H15.–
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