The Thai economy grew more slowly than expected during 4Q14 as private consumption and investment, along with agricultural production weakened. Although the 4Q14 GDP expanded 1.7 percent QoQ, SA or 2.3 percent YoY, private consumption and investment contracted 0.6 percent QoQ, SA and 0.2 percent QoQ, SA, respectively, suggesting that private sector confidence towards the economy is flagging. These declines were due to low-income households being saddled with hefty debts, while agricultural families earned lower income from their output sales..
During 1Q15, we at KResearch expect that the Thai economy will continue to grow QoQ, SA, while YoY growth should reach 4 percent, due partly to a low 1Q14 base – caused by domestic political strife – amid an apparent turnaround of the tourism sector and improving domestic spending, albeit at a lesser growth rate.
Key factors that will affect the Thai economy this year will include the government's economic stimuli via budgetary disbursements and infrastructural investment programs, aimed at sustaining economic growth amid a bleak export outlook due to sluggish key trade partner economic growth and falling commodity prices.
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