Thailand's October inflation remained in negative territory for the tenth consecutive month at (-)0.77 YoY, nevertheless better than the (-)1.00 percent expected, following a (-)1.07 percent YoY reading recorded for September. Meanwhile, the October CPI had risen 0.2 percent MoM; the highest increase in 17 months. However, KResearch realizes that this MoM increase was mainly due to higher food prices during the Jae Festival (on vegetables and fruit) that had a brief influence.
Over the remainder of 2015, we at KResearch are maintaining our projection for 2015 Headline Inflation averaging within a range of (-)1.0 to (-)0.8 percent YoY.
As for 2016, inflation is expected to rebound to 0.8-1.8 percent growth over a low 2015 base if the Dubai crude oil price is around USD48.5-USD56.0/barrel. Meanwhile, domestic demand recovery and minimum wage increases in some locales may not produce any significant impact on inflation during 1H16.
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