Thailand's January Headline Inflation stood at (-)5.3 percent YoY, remaining in negative territory for 13 months in a row. Core Inflation slowed for the fourth straight month to 0.59 percent YoY, reflecting prolonged slump in the prices of goods and services, excluding oil, in line with a laggard recovery in consumer purchasing power here. In addition, the prices of some consumer products have been cut after their cost structure was revised given falling oil and raw material prices, as well as transportation costs.
As for 2016, since prices of goods and services overall will likely remain low in the face of a meager rebound in global crude oil prices foreseen ahead, KResearch is of the view that the average Headline Inflation may slip below the lower end of our projected range at 0.8-1.8 percent.
We will continue to closely monitor global crude oil prices and meeting outcomes between OPEC and other oil producing countries in February that may give cause to revisions of our inflation forecasts and oil price assumptions, going forward.
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