18 Jul 2023 International Economy The Chinese economy grew less than expected in 2Q23; full-year growth for 2023 is expected to reach 5.2 percent YoY (Business Brief No.4010) คะแนนเฉลี่ย คะแนนเฉลี่ย 5 stars 4 stars 3 stars 2 stars 1 star China’s economy in 2Q23 saw less-than-expected growth at 6.3 percent YoY amid slowing economic activity in several sectors, and continued pressure from the troubled property sector. Nevertheless, the Chinese economy in 1H23 grew by 5.5 percent YoY, mainly driven by the service sector. In 1H23, the country’s service sector and infrastructure investment recorded growth of 6.4 percent YoY and 7.2 percent YoY, respectively. Meanwhile, investment in the high-tech industry rose to 12 percent YoY. The 2H23 Chinese economy, excluding the low base effect, is likely to grow at a slower pace compared to 1H23. The country’s economic growth still faces challenges, including the risk of deflation, the uncertainties and limitations of its fiscal and monetary policies, as well as geopolitical tensions. KResearch projects that the Chinese economy in 2023 will expand by 5.2 percent YoY, relatively close to the government’s target of 5 percent. In our view, China will need to impose additional economic stimulus measures, especially policies aimed at restoring confidence among consumers and businesses, such as further interest rate cuts, reduction of the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) of commercial banks, as well as measures for the ailing property sector. Looking ahead, the direction of China's economic stimulus can be monitored after the Politburo meeting in July 2023. View full article Login / Register Or Enter the code from the poll Annotation This research paper is published for general public. It is made up of various sources. 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This direction will likely add significant pressure to global trade, thus, KResearch views that all eyes should be closely kept on negotiations between the US and EU, both being among the largest economies in the world. Details on those negotiations are expected to be released before the relevant ‘safeguard tariffs’ on steel and aluminum become effective at the end of next week. If the EU and China are exempted from these new tariffs, prevailing anxiety will ease. But to the contrary, without such exemptions, China and the EU may opt to implement their own trade protectionist measures against the US, as well. This situation would likely escalate into further actions and reactions, incurring significant damage to trade that could spill over to other regions of the world.... 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