8 Dec 2023 International Economy FOMC Meeting, December 12-13, 2023: Fed likely to hold its policy rate steady at 5.25-5.50 percent (Business Brief No.4028) คะแนนเฉลี่ย คะแนนเฉลี่ย 5 stars 4 stars 3 stars 2 stars 1 star At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting slated for December 12-13, 2023, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to keep its policy rate unchanged at 5.25-5.50 percent as US inflation has fallen more than expected while the US labor market has shown signs of a slowdown. Even though US inflation remains well above the Fed’s target of 2.0 percent, a gradual decline in inflation coupled with a drop in retail sales and consumer spending have helped ease concerns about inflationary pressure in the US. Meanwhile, the labor market has begun to lose momentum and returned to a more typical level. Looking ahead, it is expected that the Fed will maintain a cautious view towards its monetary policy implementation. The FOMC may need to weigh persistently high inflationary pressure against the risk of a sluggish economy going forward. In addition, at the FOMC meeting, the Fed will release economic projections and interest rate forecasts (Fed Dot Plot), which are key issues to be monitored. Most markets see a possibility that the Fed might have less aggressive stance in its interest rate forecasts for 2024 compared to an earlier projection, as the US economy is expected to slow significantly next year. However, amid persistently high inflation and a robust if slowing labor market, KResearch expects the Fed to stay cautious and not send a strong signal about future policy rate cuts even as markets seem to anticipate significant interest rate reduction. We at KResearch view that the Fed might start to cut rates in the second quarter of 2024 at the earliest. The Committee would expect to see improved inflation and employment figures to ensure that the inflation will return to and remain within the target. Amid uncertainty about the timing of the Fed’s policy rate cuts, the Baht is likely to remain volatile going forward. If the Fed holds its policy rate steady longer than expected, the Thai Baht could face pressure from the strengthening US Dollar. Annotation This research paper is published for general public. It is made up of various sources. Trustworthy, but the company can not authenticate. reliability The information may be changed at any time without prior notice. Data users need to be careful about the use of information. The Company will not be liable to any user or person for any damages arising from such use. The information in this report does not constitute an offer. Or advice on business decisions Anyhow. International Economy Fed Related Analysis View all 14 Mar 2018 International Economy Thailand must brace for trade disputes between the US, EU and China, etc. (Current Issue No. 2905) The US is pressing ahead with trade measures against trade partners globally. In addition to their new ‘safeguard tariffs’ on imported solar panels and large washing machines imposed early in 2018, and more recently on imported steel and aluminum, the US is now preparing to implement protectionist measures against Chinese products valued at around USD60 billion. This direction will likely add significant pressure to global trade, thus, KResearch views that all eyes should be closely kept on negotiations between the US and EU, both being among the largest economies in the world. Details on those negotiations are expected to be released before the relevant ‘safeguard tariffs’ on steel and aluminum become effective at the end of next week. If the EU and China are exempted from these new tariffs, prevailing anxiety will ease. But to the contrary, without such exemptions, China and the EU may opt to implement their own trade protectionist measures against the US, as well. This situation would likely escalate into further actions and reactions, incurring significant damage to trade that could spill over to other regions of the world.... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 2 Mar 2018 International Economy Planned New US Tariffs on Metal Imports Triggering More Intense Trade Protectionism (Current Issue No. 2903) Throughout 2018, the US administration’s continual pursuit of protectionist trade measures has tended to increase volatility in global trade. Most recently, President Donald Trump announced that new “safeguard” tariffs would be imposed on steel and aluminum imports at 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Although no details have been released yet, it seems undeniable that trade with the US will become difficult, going forward.... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 6 Mar 2018 International Economy China’s 2018 Economic Targets Reflect Slower Economic Growth, while Monetary and Fiscal Policies are Still Being Used to Sustain Economic Growth Ahead (Business Brief No.3730) All eyes were on the National People’s Congress, March 5, 2018, because the ruling Communist Party proposed constitutional a... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 26 Jan 2018 International Economy Fed Meeting Expected to Maintain Rate Leaving Room for Increasing Rate Later (Business Brief No.3725) KResearch expects the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain their policy rate at 1.25-1.50 percent during their first round of meeting o... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 26 Dec 2017 International Economy The Philippines: Rising Market of ASEAN (Current Issue No. 2887 Full Ed.) Thai exports to ASEAN-5 (Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines and Brunei) account for 59.3 percent of our total exports to the entire AS... Read more 0 KB 0 KB 19 Dec 2017 International Economy Chinese Economy Continues Momentum to Yearend Growth next year inches toward balance, Focus on Reforms (Business Brief No.3719) China's latest economic indicators show that the Chinese economy has maintained momentum. Although China’s domestic eco... Read more 0 KB 0 KB View all