Inflation in February 2024 remained negative for the fifth consecutive month, but it is expected to turn positive in 2Q24 (Business Brief No.4042)

• Thailand's headline inflation in February 2024 remained negative for the fifth consecutive month at (-) 0.77 percent YoY, but it was less negative than that recorded in the previous month, as a result of the declines in raw food prices and energy costs due to the government’s subsidies.
• Looking ahead, KResearch expects Thailand's headline inflation will turn positive from 2Q24 onwards as the government is likely to reduce energy subsidies and gradually increase energy prices.
• The average headline inflation in 2024 is expected to be around 0.8 percent, which would be lower than the BOT's target range of 1-3 percent. Therefore, the BOT may consider cutting the policy rate twice this year.