• The draft Power Development Plan 2026 (PDP2026), currently undergoing public hearings, seeks to shift Thailand’s power planning focus from merely ensuring power adequacy to building a power system capable of supporting the country’s Net Zero target by 2050. The plan balances environmental sustainability, energy security, and electricity costs. It is a forward-looking power system that accommodates emerging demand from data centers and electric vehicles (EVs) by prioritizing the integration of renewable energy and battery energy storage systems (BESS). A benefit is that it slashes the electricity sector’s carbon emissions target to 19.1 metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO₂e) per year – down from 66.2 MtCO₂e in the previous draft.
• Beyond 2037, the draft PDP2026 outlines three potential pathways to meet the country’s electricity demand through to 2050. One is a Carbon Capture and Storage-Driven (CCS-Driven) pathway, the second is a Balanced Net Zero pathway, and the third is a Renewable Energy-Led (RE-Led) pathway. Ultimately, the choice of pathway will depend on LNG prices, capital expenditure for clean power projects, BESS costs, and the readiness of CCS and small modular reactor (SMR) technologies. The objective is to ensure that the average electricity tariff for consumers throughout the plan period remains below THB 4 per kilowatt-hour (kWh).
• KResearch views that the success of the PDP2026 will hinge on early preparation, such as the development of technological maturity, the identification and allocation of carbon storage sites, and investment in infrastructure. However, regulatory reforms and workforce upskilling all require lead time for execution. Therefore, clear policy directions must be established to mitigate uncertainties surrounding Thailand’s energy transition, enabling the private sector to plan their investments effectively.
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