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30 May 2023

Thai Economy

Anemic global economy pressured Thai exports to contract further at 7.6% YoY in April….International trade will present another important challenge for the new government (Business Brief No.4006 Full Ed.)


        In April 2023, the slowing global economy pressured Thai exports to contract faster than previously thought. Despite the low base of the previous month, ebbing global demand caused Thailand’s outward trade to shrink for the seventh consecutive month of 7.6 percent YoY in April. An important factor affecting Thailand’s outward trade was the shrinkage of shipments to almost all major trade partners, including the US, Eurozone and Japan. Key exports to the United Arab Emirates resumed a steeper contraction in April 2023, as well. Nevertheless, shipments to China began to pick up, growing 23.0 percent YoY after shrinking for ten straight months.  
        Looking ahead, KResearch is of the view that the slowing economies of Thailand’s major trade partners, led by the US, along with other downside risks, including geopolitical issues, volatile currencies, and unfavorable weather conditions, will likely pressure the Thai export sector further. However, it may be supported by several positive factors, including the recovery in Thai exports to China in April, and the low base of 1H21. Given this, KResearch maintains our growth forecast for Thai exports in 2023 at (-)1.2 percent. Additionally, we are of the view that the country’s international trade will present another important challenge for the new government, particularly the export sector, in terms of fostering trade relations with existing trade partners, plus studying, negotiating and entering agreements with new trade partners .

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Thai Economy