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28 Nov 2023

Thai Economy

KResearch projects that Thai exports for 2023 will outperform its previous forecast of a 2.5-percent decline; exports now expected to drop by 1.5-1.0 percent (Business Brief No.4026)

คะแนนเฉลี่ย

        Thailand’s exports expanded by 8.0 percent YoY in October 2023, marking an improvement for the third consecutive month. This growth was bolstered by the low base of 2022, substantial shipments to the US market with growth of up to 13.8 percent YoY, and steady expansion of fruit exports to China. At the same time, the country’s exports of refined oil increased in line with global oil prices, while its shipments of gold as a safe haven asset rose amid geopolitical tensions.

        Looking into the remainder of 2023, Thai exports are likely to be in a positive territory thanks to the low base effect of last year. However, the uncertain global economic conditions may hinder the prospects of the country’s outbound shipments. Even though the Israel-Hamas conflict has shown signs of improvement, geopolitical tensions remain issues that need to be monitored. Meanwhile, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) figures in major economies continue to decline. Nevertheless, due to the low base effect and potential demand during the year-end festive season, Thai shipments are likely to maintain growth in the remaining months of the year.

        Given this, KResearch projects that the overall Thai shipments for 2023 will contract by less than its prior estimate of 2.5 percent, possibly falling within the range of 1.5-1.0 percent.

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