• Vietnam’s economy maintains strong momentum, with 3Q26 GDP expanding by 9.95 percent YoY, driven by investment, exports, and consumption. However, as imports accelerated faster than exports, net exports turned into a drag on economic growth.
• The government’s 10-percent growth target is intensifying pressure on domestic funding sources. To achieve such a high growth target, Vietnam must increasingly rely on public investment and credit. At the same time, with loan growth outpacing deposit growth, funding costs have risen even as system-wide liquidity and capital adequacy remain manageable.
• Downside risks ahead stem from US trade policy uncertainty, rising funding costs, elevated private sector debt, and limited external buffers, while imbalances in the real estate market remain a key issue to monitor.
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