KResearch views that the ''Shop Dee Mee Kuen'' (Shop and Payback) stimulus measure will likely benefit consumers earning at least THB500,00 per year or approximately THB42,000 per month. According to our behavioral survey, 70.0 percent of the total respondents (who are in the above consumer segment) intend to participate in this stimulus program. However, the majority of consumers earning less than THB500,000 per year do not intend to do so because they are still concerned about future expenditures. In addition, as their personal income tax rates are relatively moderate, they do not need to spend more for tax deductions.
It is expected that the ''Shop Dee Mee Kuen'' stimulus program will induce consumers to spend the most on restaurant dining, IT devices (such as, smartphones, smartwatches and computers) and personal care products (namely as shampoos, liquid soaps and toothpastes). However, such spending during the implementation of this initiative may not increase significantly over a normal period (when there is no stimulus program) because consumers often dine out and purchase those personal care products anyway. Nevertheless, teenagers and working-age people will likely purchase more IT devices. Meanwhile, most consumers intend to eat out at restaurants and shop at stores in shopping malls because these offline channels offer complete ranges of products and services, while the e-marketplace is the preferred shopping platform for the new generation of consumers (teenagers and working-age people).
Given this, KResearch expects that the “Shop Dee Mee Kuen", which is intended by the government to stimulate spending during the year-end holiday season, as well as other stimulus measures introduced earlier, such as the 3,000-Baht cash handouts, will cause the overall retail business in 2020 to contract at a slower pace of 6.0 percent, compared to the 7.2 percent YoY contraction in the case that there were no stimulus measures at all. Meanwhile, retailers may need to put preparations in place such as ensuring sufficient stocks, offering tax invoice delivery services or issuing electronic tax invoices.
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