Preliminarily, products and businesses with ties to the US market will likely benefit from this historic election after braving the COVID-19 crisis this year, setting them on the path towards economic recovery in 2021. Indeed, the degree of recovery depends on the policies under the new president who will lead the United States for the next four years. KResearch projects that, under the tenure of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and through a hefty budget for economic revitalization, the US economy is expected to expand by not less than 3.0 percent, more than in the scenario of President Donald Trump's re-election, wherein economic growth could amount to less than 2.0 percent.
Thai exports to the US are set to gain more from Biden's policies, as US-bound exports in 2021 would be expected to make a rapid turnaround with growth of 10-12 percent, and an export value of USD 36.7-37.3 billion. While Thai exports are able to grow under the continuation of President Donald Trump's policies, such a course may not run smoothly, as he lacks an absolute majority in Congress. As a result, Thai goods bound for the US might experience relatively limited growth below 5.0 percent, or an export value of approximately USD 35 billion. Export growth– driven mainly by demand for luxury goods in the US - may have fizzled out for the time being, whereas Thailand's intermediate products could encounter obstacles generated by the trade war and only slowly recovering purchasing power. Should the US authorize further GSP suspensions of Thai products, Thai exports may face hardship over the coming period.
KResearch views the following groups of exports to have the best potential in cracking the US market after the election: 1) Essential consumer goods, particularly food, would continue to see robust growth this year, regardless of which candidate will be in power; 2) luxury goods such as gems and jewelry, automobiles, electrical appliances and furniture would likely benefit more under the presidency of Joe Biden; 3)intermediate goods would be supported by both the US economic recovery and the policies of Joe Biden, which put emphasis on investment in basic infrastructure and clean energy, expansion of the 5G telecommunications network, and boosting demand for steel and related products, solar panels and diodes, as well as computers and electronics. Furthermore, policies proposed by the Democrat Party would also allow Thai products to benefit indirectly from a resurgence in US purchasing power, which would undoubtedly boost demand for consumer goods in every category – including demand for Thai intermediate goods from manufacturing countries which deliver the goods to consumers in the United States.