At its February 25 meeting, the MPC is projected to maintain the interest rate at 1.25% following stronger-than-expected Thai GDP growth (Business Brief No.4243 Full Ed.)

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At its meeting on February 25, 2026, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is projected to maintain the interest rate at 1.25 percent following stronger-than-expected Thai economic growth in 4Q25 and easing political risks after the election results.
KResearch expects the MPC to cut the policy rate once to 1.00 percent this year, potentially during its June meeting, to allow time to evaluate 1Q26 GDP figures due in May, which are expected to slow significantly and mark the lowest point of the year. While Thailand’s economy has the potential to gradually recover in 2H26 if a government can be formed quickly and additional stimulus measures are introduced, it may still face multifaceted risks, compounded by a likely ongoing contraction in loans.
Furthermore, the fact that the MPC currently consists of only six members instead of the usual seven may make the balance of opinions within the meeting more sensitive. A 3-3 split vote would leave the decision in the MPC Chairperson’s hands. Additionally, the appointment of a new MPC Secretary may lead to shifts in the tone or format of policy communication that warrant close monitoring going forward.

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