14 Aug 2024
Financial Institutions
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27 Nov 2023
25 Sep 2023
27 Jul 2023
23 May 2023
25 Mar 2023
24 Jan 2023
First MPC meeting of the year January 25, 2023 MPC is expected to raise its policy rate in continuation from the previous year, by 0.25 percent to 1.50 percent ... Read more
28 Nov 2022
MPC meeting, Nov. 30, 2022 Policy likely to be raised by another 0.25% to 1.25% amid elevated inflationary pressures while economic recovery is on track ... Read more
27 Sep 2022
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to raise its policy rate by 0.25 percent to 1.00 percent at its upcoming meeting amid increased inflationary pressure and steady depreciation of the Baht. As previously signaled, the MPC may gradually speed up its policy rate hikes amid the fragile recovery of the Thai economy due to high debt levels of households and businesses. ... Read more
2 Jun 2022
It is expected that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent at the upcoming MPC meeting, with the aim of supporting the economy that has yet to fully recover. However, the MPC will continue to experience more challenges in maintaining its accommodative monetary policy ahead. Therefore, it may begin raising its policy rate during 4Q22. While the Thai economy is gradually bouncing back, it is still being pressured by accelerating inflation and the slowing global economy. Given this, the MPC will continue to place emphasis on economic risks and keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.50 percent during the upcoming meeting. Despite the runaway inflation and weakening Baht in line with other regional currencies, there are no urgent reasons for the MPC to raise its policy at this time as Thailand’s external stability remains solid. ... Read more
7 Feb 2022
5 Nov 2021
KResearch assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent in the meeting slated for November 10, 2021, in light of positive economic factors that stem from Thailand’s reopening and continuous easing of lockdown measures. These have benefited the recovery of domestic economic activity, ... Read more
23 Sep 2021
KResearch assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate at 0.50 percent during the meeting slated for September 29, 2021, following a decrease in the number of daily COVID-19 cases in the country. In its previous meeting in August 2021, the MPC voted 4 to 2 to maintain the policy rate; the two dissenting members viewed that it should be cut by 0.25 percent per annum. Nevertheless, KResearch expects that the MPC will be less inclined to reduce its policy rate at the upcoming MPC meeting since the number of daily COVID-19 cases has passed its peak and is now on a declining trend. As lockdown measures have steadily been relaxed, economic risks have started to decrease. Thus, the policy rate will likely remain unchanged at 0.50 percent in the upcoming meeting.... Read more
30 Jul 2021
KResearch assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely keep its policy intact at 0.5 percent during the upcoming meeting scheduled for August 4, 2021 to support the Thai economic recovery amid increased risk, stemming from the Delta coronavirus (COVID-19) variant. This highly contagious COVID-19 variant has made it even more difficult to control the pandemic. The soaring number of daily infections has left the Thai public health system with greater restriction than ever before. Given this, the government may have to extend its stringent containment measures. All these factors are set to further hurt the business sector, employment, consumer purchasing power and confidence.... Read more
21 Jun 2021
KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate on hold at 0.50 percent during the meeting slated for June 23, 2021, in order to support Thailand’s economic recovery amid low inflationary pressures. The Thai economy remains fraught with risks from the COVID-19 outbreak with a continuous increase in the number of new daily cases, and uncertainties over the vaccination rate even though it has doubled or tripled from previous months, thanks to ongoing vaccination drives. Government measures to boost the economy will likely remain essential amid ongoing economic uncertainty surrounding the pandemic.... Read more
23 Mar 2021
We at KResearch assess that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent during the meeting scheduled for March 24, 2021 as the government has steadily implemented a series of economic stimulus measures with the aim of easing the impact of a new wave of COVID-19 on the economy. Additionally, the Thai economy is set to rebound after the resurgence of COVID-19 has subsided and vaccine supplies have been secured as planned. However, close attention must be paid to recovery signs of the Thai economy after new fiscal stimulus measures have been introduced such as the second phase of the “Kon La Krueng” program (co-payment), cash handout “Rao Chana” scheme (“We Win”) and “Section 33 We Love Each Other” project. Prior to the implementation of these programs, the government issued a number of monetary stimulus measures, including the assistance scheme for borrowers (renewed), reduction in minimum installment payment, reduction in installment payment and revision on the regulations regarding interest rates for default cases. ... Read more
29 Jan 2021
KResearch assesses that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent during its first meeting of 2021, scheduled for February 3, because the government has just implemented new monetary and fiscal measures. Its spending under the new fiscal stimulus package accounts for 1.4 percent of GDP, which will likely help alleviate the impacts of the new wave of COVID-19 on the economy somewhat. In addition, the Baht’s slow appreciation may help ease concerns over its impacts on the economy, as well... Read more
17 Dec 2020
KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent during the meeting slated for December 23, 2020 because there are signs showing steady recovery in the Thai economy after the government implemented measures aimed at stimulating the economy and sustaining purchasing power. Recently, the government decided to extend the co-payment scheme and offer more cash handouts to welfare cardholders, which may help reinvigorate domestic spending until at least 1Q21. However, the Thai economic recovery is still in its early stages; therefore, the MPC will continue to be cautious in assessing its economic outlook for 2021 even though its current growth projections for the Thai economy at -7.8 percent for 2020 and at 3.6 percent for 2021 may be revised upward. ... Read more
16 Nov 2020
22 Sep 2020
We at KResearch expect that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 0.50 percent during its meeting slated for September 23, 2020 to maintain the monetary policy space. The MPC may view that a policy rate cut to near zero is not necessary at this time because it cannot directly address current economic problems. As a result, it will likely maintain the policy rate until at least the end of 2020 if domestic economic conditions do not change significantly. The move is in alignment with monetary policy stances of other central banks, in particular the US Federal Reserves (Fed), which recently signaled to keep the Fed Funds rate near zero until at least 2023 after resolving to adjust its monetary policy strategy and long-run goals by adopting an Average Inflation Targeting in place of the fixed target level of inflation. ... Read more
22 Jun 2020
Regarding the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting on June 24, 2020, KResearch has assessed that the committee will consider putting the policy rate on hold at 0.50 percent as it waits to gauge the effectiveness of the monetary and fiscal measures that were previously issued. These measures includes a downward adjustment of the policy rate in May, financial assistance measures such as debt moratoriums, soft loans and debt restructuring, as well as relief measures and stimulus packages that were launched to alleviate the impact of COVID-19 and support both businesses and households through this ongoing crisis.... Read more
25 May 2020
The Monetary Policy Committee’s decision to trim its policy rate on May 20, 2020 has prompted commercial banks in Thailand to cut their interest rates once again a few days after that. Large commercial banks have concurrently announced to reduce their minimum loan rates (MLR), minimum retail rates (MRR) and minimum overdraft rates (MOR). The MLR reduction may help ease financial burden of entrepreneurs and consumers, including those applying for new loans and existing borrowers, who are able to repay debt. It is also consistent with financial institutions’ assistance measures for SMEs and retail customers. On the other hand, the MLR cut may pressure operating results of commercial banks, which are poised to cope with more challenges during 2Q20.... Read more
18 May 2020
KResearch expects the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to consider adjusting interest rate downward by 0.25 percent from the current level of 0.75 percent to 0.50 percent, amid this risk-prone economic environment. The Thai economy has been significantly affected by the outbreak of COVID-19, as it experienced a 1.8 percent contraction YoY in 1Q20 and is set to decline even further at an accelerated rate in 2Q20. Overall, the Thai economy is forecasted to shrink by approximately 5.0 percent this year. Amid current circumstances, the main emphasis for the MPC would likely be placed on economic expansion– through implementation of policy rate and monetary policies to support liquidity provisions. These policies may help to ease businesses’ financial burden and carry them through this crisis. ... Read more
17 Dec 2019
We at KResearch expect that the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 1.25 percent during the final meeting of 2019 slated for December 18, 2019 pending a domestic economic assessment going forward. ... Read more
1 Nov 2019
Signs of a slowing economy in terms of exports, domestic spending and relatively low inflation reflect the vulnerabilities of the Thai economy, while the impact from the lackluster exports has begun seeping into the real economic sector. Although the government recently introduced a series of economic stimulus measures, they could only cushion the impact and merely prevent the economy from sliding down further. Looking ahead, risk factors to the economy persist, including the US trade war with China, and inconclusive Brexit negotiations, despite the recently-emerged positive signs associated with these issues. KResearch views that Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is likely to cut the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points from 1.50 to 1.25 percent during their meeting on November, 6. ... Read more
19 Sep 2019
We at KResearch expect that the Bank of Thailand (BOT)’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely maintain its policy rate at 1.50 percent during the sixth meeting of 2019 slated for September 25, 2019. The fact that 3Q19 economic indicators did not deteriorate from those seen in 2Q19 may give the MPC to assess the results of its policy rate cut at the previous meeting and the government economic stimuli for some time while pressure from the policy rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and European Central Bank (ECB) on the BOT’s monetary policy stance may be limited. In addition, the BOT may have adequate tools to supervise the Baht, thus its decision towards the monetary policy direction will depend more on domestic factors rather than external factors.... Read more
7 Aug 2019
Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-2 to cut the benchmark rate for the first time in four years to 1.50 percent, from 1.75 percent, at its meeting, August 7, 2019. The MPC attributed its move to the weakening signs seen in the export sector and domestic demand, which have caused the Thai economy overall to grow at a slower pace than previously assessed, and the fact that headline inflation has remained at the lower end of its inflation target band. ... Read more
5 Aug 2019
KResearch projects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate steady at 1.75 percent at the fifth meeting of 2019 slated for August 7, 2019. It is expected that the MPC will attach importance to long-term stability at the upcoming meeting as it is experiencing more challenges in implementing its money policy amid numerous downside risks, in particular financial stability risk resulting from a steady acceleration of household debt that may stifle Thailand’s long-term economic performance. To cope with stability risk, the Bank of Thailand (BOT) has implemented both macro and micro prudential policies, namely the LTV ratio. It is also scheduled to introduce loan quality standards, namely the debt service coverage ratio (DSCR), by the end of 2019. However, it may take some time for these measures to yield results. ... Read more
20 Jun 2019
KResearch expects Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to keep the policy rates unchanged at 1.75 percent during its fourth meeting of 2019. The MPC is likely to weigh risk factors to financial stability in its monetary policy. In particular, household debts further accelerated in the first quarter of 2019, speeding up for three consecutive quarters, while the quality of debt begins to show deteriorating signs. These are the factors prompting the MPC to take a cautionary approach in monetary policy implementation and closely monitor the developments of such risks, whereas easing monetary policy may exacerbate the economic fragility. KResearch views that the MPC will likely follow the results of macro and micro prudential measures such as the limits imposed on loan-to-value ratio and the tightening of credit underwriting standards, and determine whether these measures can effectively oversee the Thai economic health. ... Read more
30 Apr 2019
We at KResearch expect that the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely keep its policy rate intact at 1.75 percent during the third meeting of 2019 pending an assessment of Thai economic development and results of the implementation of macro-and micro-prudential monetary policies, for example, through the introduction of maximum LTV ratio and credit underwriting standards. Such specific monetary policies are aimed at maintaining economic stability while the government stimulus measures, which are expected to be introduced during the middle of 2019, may help ease economic risks somewhat.... Read more
20 Dec 2018
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agrees to lift the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points from 1.50 to 1.75, the first rate increase in seven years. The lift is aimed at building policy space for the future. KResearch views that the policy rate increase is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Thai economy in 2019 as the liquidity in the Thai financial market remains high.... Read more
14 Sep 2018
We at KResearch are of the view that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 1.50 percent during the meeting scheduled for September 19, 2018. This is because it may not see the need to raise its policy rate much at this time despite steady improvements in the Thailand economy. Moreover, volatile capital movements and benign inflation may not prompt the MPC to change its stance at the upcoming meeting either. Inflationary pressure is limited especially from the demand side while there are no signs that inflation expectation will increase significantly in the future, so there is no need for the MPC to raise its policy rate in order to curb inflation now. In addition, Thailand’s external stability remains robust; therefore risk of capital flight is low as evidenced by net purchase of foreign investors in the Thai bond market. Given this, a policy hike may only attract more foreign capital into Thailand, thus strengthening the Baht’s value on a par with currencies of our trade rivals. ... Read more
6 Aug 2018
KResearch expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will resolve to maintain their policy rate at 1.50 percent during the fifth meeting of 2018 slated for August 8 to ensure that the recovery is seen across all economic sectors and inflation moves toward to its set target. It must be noted that many central banks in Asia, along with the Bank of England and Bank of Canada have already raised their policy rates this year; therefore, it is quite clear that interest rates globally are on the upward trend. For Thailand, there are not many factors pressuring the MPC to hike their policy rate because domestic inflation is relatively low, moving below the mean of inflation target rate, and Thailand’s current account surplus remains high, meaning that capital outflows and the Baht’s appreciation may not have significant impacts on the Thai economy. As a result, the MPC will likely attach importance to domestic economic factors when implementing their monetary policy going forward.... Read more
10 May 2018
KResearch expects the Bank of Thailand’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to “maintain” their policy rate at 1.50 percent for the third time in 2018 during its meeting on May 16, 2018 to support the continued momentum of Thai economic growth. Domestic spending has not fully recovered amid limited supporting factors from the fiscal policy and relatively low pressure on inflation, making monetary easing policy suitable for the current state of the Thai economy. At the same time, trade tensions between the US and China linger after Washington and Beijing failed to find a solution for their trade dispute during the previous rounds of trade talks, leading to fears of possible retaliatory measures from China, which could indirectly impact Thailand. ... Read more
23 Mar 2018
We at KResearch expect that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.50 percent during the second meeting of 2018 scheduled for March 28 to ensure continuing growth in the Thai economy going forward amid a number of external risks, in particular a possible US-China trade war. The current inflation rate, which remains at the lower band of the Bank of Thailand’s inflation target, will also support the MPC to continue its accommodative monetary policy stance. ... Read more