We at KResearch expect that the Bank of Thailand's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will likely keep its policy rate steady at 1.25 percent during the final meeting of 2019 slated for December 18, 2019 pending a domestic economic assessment going forward. Although Thai economic indicators pointed towards an economic slowdown over the past 1-2 months, the government economic stimuli, including those aimed at shoring up household spending and the property sector may help support the economy during 4Q19 to grow over that seen in 3Q19. Meanwhile, external risks have eased, including the fact that the US and China have reached the first phase of their trade deal, and clarity over Brexit.
Looking into 2020, KResearch views that the MPC will likely give more weight to key Thai economic indicators, in particular GDP, inflation and exports during 1H20. If the Thai economy recovers at a slower pace than a prior estimate, it is expected that the MPC may ease its monetary policy further.
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