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23 Dec 2020

Econ Digest

Resurgence of COVID-19 May Lead to Roughly THB45 Billion in Losses within One Month

          A new wave of COVID-19 originating from the shrimp market in Samut Sakhon province has led to an increase in infection cases and resulted in a lockdown in this province from December 19, 2020 to January 3, 2021. Infected individuals have been found to have spread to many areas in multiple provinces. Preliminarily, if no clusters of infections are found in more provinces or a broad-based lockdown is not imposed in the country again, KResearch estimates that losses to Thailand's economic and industrial sectors may amount to roughly THB45 billion within one month. Details are as follows:  
Fishery and seafood products may lose about THB13 billion as consumers may not purchase such products in the short term. In addition, future export of such products will likely be affected in terms of inspection processes, because trade partners may require Thai exporters to tighten inspection measures and other processes, although currently there has been no cancellation of pre-ordered products. 

          People delaying activities during the New Year celebrations, especially those residing in Bangkok, may cause a loss of at least THB15 billion. On the other hand, the public may have to purchase or stock up on essential products such as sanitary masks, alcohol gels, and ready-to-eat/ready-to-cook food, and may turn to online channels instead of outdoor activities.

          The delay in domestic trips will result in a loss of approximately THB17 billion, in the absence of an announced ban on cross-province travel. Affected provinces are those in the western and central regions, Bangkok and those located along the Thailand-Myanmar border. 
          The new COVID-19 outbreak may also have other effects that cannot be assessed in value such as the impact on the income of purveyors in markets, as people will likely avoid visiting, especially in areas where infection cases are detected. 
           ​KResearch views that if this new outbreak can be quickly contained and the government can take rapid measures to boost confidence, the loss is likely to be less than the estimated amount.     

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