• The food and beverage restaurants business in 2025 is expected to see slower growth, as Thailand’s economic slowdown weighs on consumer spending and the tourism sector faces the risk of stagnation. The total market value is projected at THB 646 billion, representing growth of 2.8% from 2024 (revised down from the original forecast of 4.6% growth, or a value of THB 657 billion as of December 2024).
• The restaurants business in 2025 is expected to have a market value of THB 562 billion, growing by 3.0% from 2024. Full-service restaurants are projected to grow more slowly than other segments. Meanwhile, the beverage business (including bakeries and ice cream shops) is expected to reach a market value of THB 84.2 billion in 2025, representing growth of 1.9% from 2024. The bakery segment continues to perform well, supported by a wider variety of bakery products and an increasing number of outlets.
• However, intense competition in the food and beverage restaurants business, changing restaurant trends and consumer behavior, along with highly volatile food ingredient costs and limited price adjustments, are weighing on entrepreneurs’ revenues and profitability.
Outlook for domestic food and beverage restaurants businessIn 2025, the food and beverage restaurants business is expected to have a market value of THB 646 billion, growing by 2.8% from 2024 (Figure 2). This represents a downward revision from the previous forecast of 4.6% growth, or a market value of THB 657 billion.The downward revision to the growth forecast for the food and beverage restaurants business is driven by two key factors:1. Thailand’s economic growth has slowed, weighing on purchasing power and restaurants spending. The outlook for Thailand’s economic growth in 2025 remains highly uncertain, posing risks to employment conditions and consumer purchasing power, which are key drivers of growth in the food and beverage restaurants business.2. The tourism sector faces the risk of no growth in the number of foreign tourists this year. In early 2025, Thailand’s inbound tourism market encountered negative factors weighing on growth. This is reflected in data from the Ministry of Tourism and Sports, which show that from January 1st to May 11th, 2025, foreign tourist arrivals to Thailand declined by 1% year-on-year to 12.9 million visitors, with a continued downward trend. Meanwhile, domestic tourism by Thai travelers continues to expand, but economic conditions have led some segments to become more cautious in their spending.However, the food and beverage restaurants business continues to benefit from supportive factors, including consumer lifestyles that are increasingly accustomed to dining out and ordering food for off-premises consumption, as well as the entry of new food and beverage brands and branch expansion by entrepreneurs. In addition, restaurant operators have launched promotional campaigns in collaboration with partners such as food delivery applications to expand revenue channels and stimulate sales.Investment landscape and trends in the domestic food and beverage restaurants sectorIn 2025, both large and small (individual) entrepreneurs, as well as new entrants, continue to show strong interest in investing. Asian restaurants, especially Japanese cuisine, and the premium market will remain key areas of focus for entrepreneurs.According to data from the Department of Business Development, during the first three months of 2025, there were 973 newly registered food and beverage restaurants businesses. Although this represents a year-on-year decline of 11.0%, the food and beverage restaurants sector continues to rank among the top five industries with the highest number of new business registrations each year (Figure 3). By 2025, it is estimated that there will be over 690,000 food and beverage restaurant establishments nationwide (this figure does not include other types of food and beverage businesses such as street food stalls, food trucks, and ghost kitchens, which are numerous).Most entrepreneurs’ investments remain concentrated in the Bangkok Metropolitan Area, as it is considered a high-potential location. According to data from LINE MAN Wongnai, during the first three months of 2025, the number of newly opened restaurants in Bangkok increased by 4.8%, compared with the end of 2024. Areas with a high concentration of food and beverage outlets are mainly community and residential areas. The top five districts with the highest concentration of food and beverage establishments are Chatuchak, Pathum Wan, Prawet, Phra Nakhon, and Lat Krabang (Figure 4).In addition, provinces with high tourism have also seen new openings of food and beverage outlets, such as Chonburi, Chiang Mai, and Surat Thani. These are highly popular areas that attract both domestic and international tourists.Due to the intense competition in the food and beverage business, new investments still need to be approached with caution. There are a large number of operators, and emerging food and beverage trends influence consumer behavior, prompting operators to adjust their business models by launching new brands or rebranding existing ones to refresh their image. Nevertheless, some entrepreneurs have closed branches or outlets that are unable to compete. Overall, fierce competition in the industry has also led to a significant number of business closures.Investment trends in the food and beverage industry in 2025:• Contemporary casual restaurants and bars are becoming increasingly popular and represent a restaurant model that caters to modern trends. This includes minimalist design, creating unique experiences through branding that aligns with consumer demands, such as introducing new menus and blending cultures through using local ingredients, while maintaining reasonable and diverse pricing. Most operators in this segment are young entrepreneurs, while the primary customer base consists of Generation Z consumers.• More foreign food and beverage brands are entering the Thai market. Foreign food and beverage and bakery brands, from countries such as Japan, China, South Korea, and Australia are showing increased interest in entering and expanding their branches in Thailand, both through joint ventures with Thai entrepreneurs and through franchising. Over the past 1–2 years, the food and beverage restaurants sector has continued to attract foreign investment. In the first quarter of 2025, the registered capital value of foreign-owned restaurant businesses increased by more than THB 542 million, compared with the cumulative value at the end of 2024 (Figure 5).• Mid-to-upper-priced restaurants, or Premium Casual, target consumers with high purchasing power. Restaurants in this segment typically have an average price of around THB 500 per dish or higher. More of these establishments are opening to avoid the mass market and the impact of economic downturns. They emphasize quality ingredients, creative cooking techniques, and innovative dishes. Their customer base includes families and working professionals seeking high-end dining experiences, such as the increasing number of Japanese restaurants opening in this segment.Trends in the restaurants businessIn 2025, the total market value of the restaurant industry (including full-service restaurants, limited-service restaurants, and street food outlets with physical storefronts) is expected to reach approximately THB 562 billion, representing growth of 3.0%, compared with 2024 (Figure 6). The growth of different types of restaurants is influenced by different specific factors.• Full-service restaurants are expected to grow by 1.1% from 2024, reaching a value of THB 209 billion. This segment will be the first to be affected by the economic downturn, as consumers reduce spending or the frequency of eating out. However, buffet-style restaurants continue to be popular among consumers seeking value for money, as do à la carte restaurants such as contemporary casual dining outlets, including Japanese, Korean, and Thai restaurants, in line with changing lifestyles.• Limited-service restaurants are expected to grow by 2.7%, compared with 2024, reaching a market value of approximately THB 92 billion. This growth will be driven by branch expansion by operators such as fried chicken and pizza chains, as well as full-service restaurant operators shifting toward more quick-service formats, along with continuous promotional campaigns to stimulate sales.• Street food outlets with physical storefronts are expected to grow by 4.7%, compared with 2024, reaching a market value of approximately THB 261 billion. Authentic, long-established restaurants with a unique identity that maintains their popularity, along with accessible and affordable basic menus, are showing greater growth potential than other restaurant categories. Furthermore, street food restaurants are gaining popularity among both Thai and foreign tourists, and marketing through social media is further supporting this segment of the restaurants industry.Trends in the beverage businessIn 2025, the total market value of the beverage shop sector (including bakeries and ice cream shops) is expected to reach approximately THB 84.2 billion, representing growth of 1.9% as compared with 2024 (Figure 7). Part of this growth will be driven by branch expansion among both large and small (individual) entrepreneurs who continue to open new outlets, as well as the expansion of foreign beverage franchises that are expected to enter the Thai market in greater numbers. In addition, new beverages and bakery products from overseas help stimulate consumer demand, along with the rising popularity of premium health-oriented beverages.Risks in food and beverage restaurants business• Operating costs are expected to rise. In 2025, overall operating costs in the food and beverage restaurants business are likely to increase. Labor costs account for around 15% of total costs, while utilities and rental expenses together represent more than 20% of total costs, as well as other significant costs such as:- Food raw material costs, which account for approximately 35% of total costs, remain volatile and elevated. In early 2025, prices of many food ingredients fluctuated and increased due to higher production costs and climate change affecting agricultural output. In addition, trade war–related tariff policies have pushed up prices of certain goods. Domestic raw material prices have risen for several items, such as eggs and fresh pork. Meanwhile, the prices of imported food ingredients such as milk powder, butter, cheese, wheat flour, cocoa, and coffee beans have decreased since early 2025, but they remain highly volatile. This means that beverage shops, bakeries, and Western-style restaurants will be significantly impacted.• Increasingly diverse and complex consumer behavior has become a key factor in the food and beverage restaurants business. Five core factors—novelty, experience, quality, health, and reasonable pricing—have emerged as the new standard for today’s consumers. Consumer demand trends are not fixed, with low brand loyalty and frequent shifts in line with market trends, requiring entrepreneurs to adapt their business models quickly. At the same time, the market is easy to enter but highly competitive due to the large number of players, making it challenging for businesses to maintain stable and sustainable profitability.
Scan QR Code
Annotation
This research paper is published for general public. It is made up of various sources. Trustworthy, but the company can not authenticate. reliability The information may be changed at any time without prior notice. Data users need to be careful about the use of information. The Company will not be liable to any user or person for any damages arising from such use. The information in this report does not constitute an offer. Or advice on business decisions Anyhow.