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10 Apr 2026

Econ Digest

Global urea fertilizer prices have surged due to the Iran war, putting pressure on in-season rice cultivation and potentially reducing output by more than 21%.

คะแนนเฉลี่ย
  • Global urea fertilizer prices surged to a 43‑month high of USD750 per ton in March 2026, following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This has led to an increasing risk of fertilizer shortages and higher prices worldwide, as the Strait of Hormuz, a major global shipping route, was disrupted. More than one‑third of global production is in the Middle East, which also accounts for over 26% of global urea fertilizer exports.
  • Thailand must import urea fertilizer at higher prices in line with global market trends and faces the risk of supply shortage, as the country relies entirely on imports. Urea fertilizer is a key fertilizer for Thailand's agricultural sector to boost crop yields. It accounts for more than 50% of Thailand's total chemical fertilizer imports, with over 55% sourced mainly from the Middle East.
  • The impact is expected to affect in‑season rice planting during May–July 2026, which coincides with the start of the planting period that requires substantial amounts of fertilizer. Higher production costs from expensive fertilizers are expected to reduce output by 21%, while rice prices are projected to rise by 2%, resulting in an overall decline in farmers' income of 19%.

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