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14 May 2021

Econ Digest

President Biden’s first 100 days: US economy set for strong recovery that Attract World Attention


          On April 29, 2021, President Biden's 100th day address to the US Congress also holds significance for solving the COVID-19 crisis to restore the US economy, fiscal policy and international policy,especially stance towards China.
          US met the goal of 100 million Covid-19 vaccine shots 40 days ahead of schedule, 30% of Americans are fully vaccinated, economic activity gradually returned to normal,consumer purchasing power and business performance have improved. This can be seen from the 6.4% growth in US GDP in 1Q21, and 6.3% QoQ growth in government consumption and investment.  The US economy is projected to grow 6.4 percent in 2021, recovering to pre-pandemic level. Such a scenario would be favorable to Thai exporters as it would help boost their earnings from US-bound exports in 2021 with projected growth of 7.8 percent YoY.
         However, President Biden's 100th day address to the US Congress also holds significance for the global economy, which remains shrouded in uncertainties going forward. Concerns have been raised over an overheated US economy, which has been bolstered by a large-scale fiscal stimulus and implementation of quantitative easing (QE) measures. This will prompt market expectation towards that the QE tapering that would occur sooner than what Fed anticipated earlier, leading to a potential rise in government bond yields. With regard to US foreign policy, the main focus will be on technological competition with China – as technology is a major thrust for the global economy in this digital era - as well as the establishment of foreign alliances to counter China's growing influence. These developments are expected to create a tense atmosphere for global trade and investment. For Thailand - with its relatively smaller size of economy, emphasis should be on maintaining a balance between the two superpowers.

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Econ Digest