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expects that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will keep its policy rate
steady at 0.50% at least until the end of this year during its meeting slated
for September 23, 2020 to maintain the monetary policy space. The MPC may view
that a policy rate cut to near zero is not necessary at this time in line with
monetary policy stances of other central banks, such as the US Federal Reserves
(Fed), which recently signaled to keep the Fed Funds rate near zero until at
least 2023.
An
urgent measure geared towards boosting liquidity for businesses and households
may now be formed, because it can directly address economic problems better
than a policy rate cut. The Bank of Thailand (BOT) has introduced debt
restructuring measures for borrowers in phases as the debt moratorium measure
will come to an end in this October, such as debt consolidation. Looking ahead,
the BOT may issue additional measures to continue helping various types of
borrowers survive the COVID-19 crisis, which would in turn help alleviate
NPL-related problems.
An issue that still needs to be monitored is the
revision of economic growth forecasting. It is expected that the perception of
the BOT on Thai economy will not change significantly, while GDP growth
forecast will be revised downward slightly due to the lower-than-expected
growth in the number of international tourist arrivals in Thailand, and the
fact that budgetary disbursements have been behind schedule. Nevertheless, the
Thai economy continues to experience increased downside risks, prompting the
MPC to assess the situation and weigh the risks in various aspects. If the
situation gets much worse than prior estimates, the MPC may resort to new
economic stimulus measures and additional policy rate cuts or even
unconventional monetary measures.
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