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30 Mar 2023

Econ Digest

The MPC voted unanimously to raise the policy rate by 0.25% as the Thai economy tends to recover, fueled by tourism and private consumption

คะแนนเฉลี่ย

        The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted unanimously to raise the policy rate by 0.25% from 1.50% to 1.75% on March 29, 2023. The MPC deems that the Thai economy will continue to recover, driven mainly by tourism and private consumption. Meanwhile, headline inflation is likely to return to the target range by mid-2023, but core inflation remains high and risks from cost transmission and demand-side inflationary pressures remain significant. The MPC has slightly cut its forecast for Thai economic growth for 2023 to 3.6%, while for 2024, the economy will grow at 3.8%.   

        KResearch views that this rate hike may be the last in this upward cycle, as major central banks such as the FED begin to signal a halt to rake hikes in the near term amid a marked easing of inflationary pressures and as pressure from the global trend of tightening monetary policy by central banks begins to diminish. Meanwhile, the Thai economy faces more risks from the global economic slowdown. Therefore, the MPC may need to give more weight to economic risks, which leads to the expectation that it may stop raising its policy rate in the near term.

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