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11 Apr 2023

Econ Digest

Despite surging car bookings at 2023 Bangkok International Motor Show, annual car sales still need to be monitored

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        Although the success of the 2023 Bangkok International Motor Show with 42,885 car bookings may reflect a vigorous picture of the car market in Thailand, KResearch holds a cautious view of Thailand’s car sales in 2023 with the following observations:

  1. Internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, which dominate Thailand’s car market, have not recovered to normal levels yet, as evidenced by the car bookings during the Motor Show. After deducting nearly ten thousand units of the bookings of battery electric vehicles (BEVs), ICE vehicles registered only 33,654 units of bookings. Although the bookings of ICE vehicles in 2023 increased from 28,812 units in 2022 amid a severe COVID-19 outbreak, it is relatively low compared with 37,769 units registered before the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2019.
  2. Mixed signals were seen in luxury car bookings. Some carmakers have seen an increase in car bookings, while some have seen a decrease due probably to the timing of the introduction of new car models of carmakers, especially BEVs. Some carmakers have launched new BEV models before the Motor Show and some carmakers are preparing to launch them afterward. In addition, some luxury car buyers have instead booked BEVs of carmakers that did not participate in the show, which may have affected the bookings of luxury cars.
  3. Most car bookings for leading brands were seen in low priced vehicles. While some carmakers registered high bookings for high-end cars, partly due to the addition of worthwhile options and attractive price promotions, this reflects the continued fragile consumer purchasing power as the Thai economy is at the stage of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the global economy remains highly uncertain.

        Based on the above observations, KResearch views that there are several factors to be monitored that will affect the overall car sales in 2023. Especially, these factors include the recovery of consumer purchasing power, particularly among fragile groups due to elevated debt, the rising interest rate cycle of Thailand’s financial system, and the ability to produce and deliver BEVs according to the bookings. As the bookings of BEVs from the Motor Show have shown a promising trend for BEVs, this may affect the total car sales in 2023. KResearch maintains its prior estimate that domestic car sales in 2023 will reach 865,000 – 895,000 units, or an increase of 1.8%-5.4% YoY.

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