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13 Apr 2023

Econ Digest

Export opportunity for “Thai chicken” as bird flu drags down trading partners’ chicken production


        In 2023, the exports of chicken products may be a bright prospect among Thai food products due to the bird flu situation. Severe outbreaks have occurred in several countries such as the EU, the U.S. and Japan, and outbreaks are also found in poultry industrial areas and poultry farming in South Africa such as Chile and Argentina, where the outbreak was reported for the first time, causing these affected countries to face the risk of declining production compared to the previous year. Given that the recovery of chicken meat production will not take a long time after the outbreak has been dealt with and the fact that major chicken exporting countries like Brazil and Thailand have not been affected by the bird flu, Thailand’s chicken exports may benefit moderately from the outbreaks, especially amid economic slowdowns among trading partners. KResearch projects that Thailand’s export value of chicken products in 2023 may reach USD4.18-4.26 billion, expanding by 2.5-4.5%YoY, which is less than the previous year’s growth. The smaller growth is partly due to the high base of 2022, and slowing economies among major trading partners such as Japan and the UK.

        Nevertheless, supporting factors for the overall value of Thai chicken shipments this year include: an expected increase in demand for fresh, chilled, frozen chicken from China following its reopening; penetration to new markets such as South Korea and Saudi Arabia through trade negotiations and certification of factories in Thailand; and rising demand from countries with insufficient production capacity, such as Malaysia, the Netherlands, Ireland and the Philippines. However, the challenge for Thai chicken exports is that price competition in trading partner markets tends to become intense. Therefore, the maintenance of production quality and standards, coupled with effective cost management, have become key issues for business operators.

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Econ Digest