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28 Aug 2023

Econ Digest

Slowing global economy further pressured Thai exports to see a steeper contraction of 6.2% YoY in July 2023

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        The global economic downturn has further pressured Thailand’s outward trade to shrink steeper than prior estimates to -6.2%YoY in July 2023. Thailand’s export growth has contracted for ten straight months due to the sagging demand for Thai products from almost all trade partners, except the US, where Thai exports grew slightly. Meanwhile, Thai fruit exports to China increased at a slower pace in July 2023 after recording an accelerated growth in June 2023, which remained insufficient to support the overall growth of Thai exports to China in July 2023. As a result, the overall Thai shipments during the first 7 months of 2023 continued to shrink by 5.5%YoY, while Thai imports contracted by 11.1%YoY. Thailand, therefore, continued to sustain a trade deficit of USD8,285.3 million.

        Looking into the remainder of 2023, KResearch is of the view that while Thai exports will be supported by a relatively low base in 2022, the overall shipments will likely be pressured by the slowing economies of Thailand’s major trade partners, particularly China’s slower-than-expected economic growth. Other factors that may threaten Thai exports include ongoing geopolitical issues, persistent drought that may dent agricultural outputs, and forex volatility. Given this, KResearch expects that the total Thai exports in 2023 may shrink further from the previous estimate of -1.2%.

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