Display mode (Doesn't show in master page preview)

14 Nov 2022

Econ Digest

The U.S. midterm election results are expected not to change recession trend in 2023


        The preliminary results of the U.S. midterm election in November 2022 show that the Republican Party is highly likely to control the House of Representatives, while the Senate race remains neck and neck. If the Democrat Party loses the majority in the House of Representatives in this election, it will affect the administration of President Biden in the next two years, making the passage of important bills thereafter not easy, as the Republicans have a solid majority in the House of Representatives, and the Democrats and the Republicans are evenly matched in the Senate. In addition, the U.S. government will face limitations on increasing the debt ceiling, the cost of which will be massive spending cuts, while populist policies will become a political bargaining tool for the next two years. The Republicans will use their majority in the lower house to thwart President Biden’s policies and undermine voter support for the government’s policies on the economy and social welfare. However, the U.S. security policy will not change significantly, especially in the U.S. stance towards China.

        Nonetheless, the midterm election results will not significantly change the course of the U.S. economy. KResearch views that under the base case scenario, the 2023 U.S. economy will see little or no grow in 2023 as compared to 2022, or a 0% growth rate. If the U.S. inflation rate does not decrease as anticipated, the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates more than expected, causing the U.S. economy to contract deeper than expected or for more than 2 quarters, resulting in the U.S. economy shrinking in 2023.

        As for the impact on the Thai economy, the lack of growth in the U.S. economy will put pressure on Thai exports, which are facing a high export base this year. Thai exports to the U.S. are expected to be single-digit growth at 1.1%, with an export value of approximately USD50 billion. Currently, the U.S. is Thailand’s largest export market with the highest growth rate as Thai exports to the U.S. grew by 18.9% during the first 9 months of 2022, reaching USD36.45 billion.

Scan QR Code

QR Code


This research paper is published for general public. It is made up of various sources. Trustworthy, but the company can not authenticate. reliability The information may be changed at any time without prior notice. Data users need to be careful about the use of information. The Company will not be liable to any user or person for any damages arising from such use. The information in this report does not constitute an offer. Or advice on business decisions Anyhow.