Display mode (Doesn't show in master page preview)

7 Jul 2026

Econ Digest

Vietnam’s GDP growth surpassed expectations in 2Q-2026, driven by FDI and exports; growth is expected to moderate in the second half amid slowing exports

คะแนนเฉลี่ย

  • Vietnam's economy expanded by a stronger-than-expected 8.39% YoY in 2Q-2026, supported by better-than-anticipated growth in foreign direct investment (FDI) and exports. Registered FDI surged by 84.5% YoY, while exports grew by 22.8% YoY, reflecting the continued relocation of manufacturing capacity to Vietnam. On the domestic demand side, household consumption remained robust, supported by rising incomes, with retail sales increasing by 12.9% YoY in 2Q-2026.
  • The surge in FDI reflects the continued relocation of manufacturing capacity to Vietnam, reinforcing its role as a key engine of economic growth. It also indicates that multinational corporations continue to choose Vietnam as a primary manufacturing hub in the region, particularly in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 61% of total investment. Major investors remain Singapore, South Korea, and China, with increasing investment in electronics, semiconductors, and AI-related industries. Investments by major technology companies also highlight Vietnam's transition from a labor-intensive manufacturing base toward higher-value segments of the global value chain. Nevertheless, Vietnam's ability to sustain investment inflows over the long term will depend more on improvements in workforce quality, skills development, and infrastructure than on labor costs alone.
  • Exports continued to be supported by AI-related demand, particularly for AI technology products. Exports expanded by 22.8% YoY in the second quarter of 2026, driven by technology products, electronics, and machinery, in line with strong demand for AI-related equipment. Meanwhile, labor-intensive products, such as textiles and footwear, began to show signs of slowing, reflecting an ongoing shift in Vietnam's export structure. However, export momentum is expected to moderate in the second half of the year due to a high base effect and front-loaded orders in the first half of the year, leading growth rates to normalize. Nonetheless, demand for AI-related products is expected to continue supporting exports in certain sectors.
  • The trade deficit is not a sign of weakening external demand but rather reflects increased imports to support investment, export-oriented productio​n, and higher energy costs. Although Vietnam recorded a trade deficit of USD16.7 billion in the first half of 2026, this was primarily driven by rising imports of capital goods, intermediate goods, and energy, rather than a slowdown in exports. Therefore, the trade deficit reflects the continued expansion of the industrial sector. Nevertheless, the economy's heavy reliance on imports also makes Vietnam more vulnerable to fluctuations in energy prices and exchange rates.
  • Slowing inflation eased pressure on household consumption, positively impacting domestic demand. Inflation fell to 4.69% YoY in June, from 5.60% YoY in the previous month, driven by a slowdown in transportation and construction material prices, which reduced pressure on household purchasing power.
  • Vietnam's economy is expected to moderate in the second half of the year. However, given that first-half GDP growth was stronger than expected, KResearch has revised up its full-year 2026 GDP growth forecast for Vietnam from 7.0% to 7.9%. The upward revision is supported by stronger-than-expected growth in FDI and exports during the first half of the year. Nevertheless, economic growth in the second half is expected to moderate in line with slower export growth due to base effects and the gradual normalization of AI-related products.
  • US trade policy remains a key downside risk to Vietnam's investment and export outlook. In particular, a key risk going forward is potential investigations under Section 301 – covering issues such as forced labor, structural excess capacity, and intellectual property protection – that could affect future investment and export performance. The extent of the impact will depend on the scope and implementation of any measures relative to those imposed on competing economies.
  • Vietnam's economy also faces risks from the financial and real estate sectors. The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained elevated at 4.9% in the first quarter of 2025 (latest data from the IMF), while speculative activity in the real estate sector is evident, as housing prices have risen significantly faster than incomes. However, the Vietnamese authorities consider these risks manageable.

Scan QR Code


QR Code

Annotation

This research paper is published for general public. It is made up of various sources. Trustworthy, but the company can not authenticate. reliability The information may be changed at any time without prior notice. Data users need to be careful about the use of information. The Company will not be liable to any user or person for any damages arising from such use. The information in this report does not constitute an offer. Or advice on business decisions Anyhow.

Econ Digest

Vietnam