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23 Apr 2021

Econ Digest

The share of Thailand’s xEV sales will account for more than half of total automobile sales in less than 10 years


         Thailand's xEV vehicle registration in the first two months of 2021 was 9,164 units, or a growth of 42.6%YoY. KResearch expects that if the new outbreak of COVID-19 can be contained, in tandem with automobile manufacturers’ market promotion for xEVs being in the range of lower than THB1 million, the sales of vehicles in this segment will grow at exponential rate. Looking ahead, the sales of xEVs in Thailand may outpace internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles within 10 years, with contributing factors of automobile manufacturers’ investment plans and support from the public and private sectors. 

         In terms of domestic xEV sales in 2021, KResearch projects that the sales of Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) will likely amount to 48,000-50,000 units, or a growth of 63-70%YoY. Such innovative vehicles are set to become the standard models for numerous car brands, providing the foundation for a complete shift to new automotive technologies in the future. Meanwhile, Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) sales will grow exponentially after more BEVs with affordable prices result from China entering the domestic market this year. It is expected that the sales of BEVs will reach 4,000-5,000 units, or a growth of 210-288%YoY. Sweeping installation of EV charging stations will serve as another supportive factor to motivate consumers’ decision to purchase BEVs. 

          KResearch perceives that, in combination with the potential increase in exports of xEVs, especially HEVs and PHEVs, the production of domestic xEVs in 2021 could reach 72,000-80,000 units, or a growth of 60-78% from 45,000 units estimated for 2020. Under the assumption that the economy growth will not be slower than estimated and that no additional stimulus measures are implemented, it is expected that within 2030, xEVs will reach a share of 55% of total domestic vehicle sales, while the share of xEV production could eventually rise above 50%, and the share of xEV exports will account for 47% of total vehicle exports.    

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Econ Digest