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25 Mar 2021

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February Exports, Excluding Gold, Grew 4.0%...Growth Not in Sight for 1Q21 Shipments (Business Brief No.3918)

คะแนนเฉลี่ย
  • ​The global economy is projected to recover at a faster rate than prior estimate during 2021. Due to the progress on COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and growth seen in the US economy, buoyed by its massive economic stimulus package, the global economy is set to rebound to its pre-pandemic levels in 2021, and this will benefit Thailand's outward trade. Recovery signs first seen in the global economy in February helped support Thai exports, excluding gold, to expand by 4.01 percent YoY during this period, yet the overall shipments continued to contract slightly at 2.59 percent. In spite of this, the export value in February 2021 was higher than the February average export value recorded over the past five years.
  • Shipments of agricultural produce and agricultural processing products recorded steady growth at 6.99 percent. Exports that performed well were the same as those seen in January. Although shipments of work-from-home products, such as furniture and computers, continued to expand, exports of Thai industrial products reverted to a 4.02 percent YoY contraction because of shrinking gold exports and prices (gold shipments plunged 93.0 percent).   
  • Thailand's outward trade in February 2021 improved over that reported for January, supported by the global economic recovery, in particular China and the US. Looking ahead, bright prospects are seen in overall Thai shipments. We at KResearch, therefore, project that Thai exports will record a 4.5 percent growth in 2021, bettering our previous growth forecast of 3.0 percent. However, close attention must be paid to several downside risks, including the third wave of COVID-19 in several countries, shortages of shipping containers, persistent rises in ocean freight rates and the fact that Egypt's Suez Canal, one of the world's vital shipping routes, has been blocked by a huge container vessel. KResearch expects that Thai shipments will continue to contract during 1Q21, though growth will begin to be seen from 2Q21 onwards. 


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