KResearch projects that, despite short-term supply disruption stemming from the COVID-19 outbreaks, Thai mangosteen exports could be valued at an estimated USD 540-560 million, or growth of 14.6-18.8 percent YoY, mainly from export prices. While Indonesia may have taken a greater share of the Chinese market, Thailand should be able to maintain its dominant market position as Thai mangosteen has a price advantage over its competitors. Thailand is also located closer to China, allowing shipments to be delivered with relative ease and ensuring the freshness and quality of Thai mangosteen that is already known for its unique taste. Moreover, Thai fruit exporters have strength in the Chinese Market. Nonetheless, close attention should be paid to the volume of mangosteens from Indonesia, which may increase rapidly over the forthcoming period.
KResearch assesses that, while impacts for mangosteen exporters from supply disruption may be short-term, farmers of other fruits/vegetables should adapt to labor shortages during the next harvest season and be prepared for potential impacts to prevent the recurrence of such issues. The Thai government should assume an important role in supporting and allocating the workforce systematically by helping to absorb the production cost in terms of labor and upskilling harvesting techniques in each area as deemed most efficient and advantageous.