Thai exports turn around in October to rise 8.7%, pushing the whole 2018 growth close to 8% (Business Brief No.3773)

​Thai exports bounced back in October 2018, rising 8.7 percent YoY or totaling USD21,757.9 million, higher than the initial consensus of 4.5 percent after Thai exports declined by 5.2 percent YoY in September. The surge in Thai exports in October is attributed to the following factors:

1. Thai gold exports rose due to an increase of gold prices in the world market in October 2018 when compared to the figures in the previous 1-2 months due to heightened uncertainty in the global economy.
2. Thai exports benefited from an acceleration of outbound shipments to Japan to fulfill the purchase orders made prior to typhoons in September, which temporarily halted the shipments of goods.   
3. Thai sugar exports jumped 77.8 percent YoY, particularly the shipments to the Philippines in October 2018, which skyrocketed 2,639.1 percent YoY.
4. Chinese manufacturers sped up importing of another batch of Thai products which are part of the Chinese supply chain to accelerate manufacturing in order to export them to the US before the US raises tariffs on Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent in January 2019.

Thai exports in the first 10 months expanded 8.2 percent YoY, driven by favorable expansion of auto products and parts and equipment, in line with steady global economic recovery. In addition, petroleum-related products rose due partly to higher crude oil prices in 2018 when compared to the levels in 2017. Moreover, the surge is a result of an acceleration of Thai exports to China for manufacturing and exporting to the US before the enforcement of US punitive tariffs against Chinese goods. KResearch views that, typically, Thai exports in October and November are high during the year-end season including Thanksgiving, Christmas and the New Year's holidays.   Therefore, an average monthly value of Thai exports in the remaining two months of 2018 should rise close to or be slightly higher than October's figure of USD21,735 million, possibly pushing the Thai export value for the whole of 2018 to nearly 8.0 percent.