China has been severely affected by a heat wave and drought. Although the situation has eased in some areas, the heat wave crisis may persist and affect crops that are to be harvested during the remainder of this year. This would boost imports into China, especially rice, wheat and maize.
China is likely to import rice mainly from Thailand for the rest of 2022 when Thai rice supply is entering the market. Meanwhile, Vietnam, Pakistan and India may face production limitations and export restrictions. This should be a boon to Thailand's exports of jasmine rice to China, which are expected to be around 95,000-100,000 tons during September-December 2022, or an increase of 5.7-11.3 percent YoY. Additionally, the fact that Thailand and Vietnam are preparing to discuss how to manage rice prices in the global market would support the price of jasmine rice and other rice varieties to remain at high levels. However, attention should be paid to the flooding situation in Thailand, which is still highly uncertain, which could result in Thai rice exports falling short of projection.