Household debt in 2024 may decline to 88.5-89.5% of GDP; survey shows varied ability to manage debt among households (Current Issue No.3524 Full Ed.)

• Thai household debt has been slowing since late 2022. Most recently, it rose by only 1.3 percent YoY in 2Q24, the lowest growth in household debt since records began in 2003. This stems from four main factors: gradual contraction of auto loans, marginal growth in home loans, continued growth in consumer loans other than credit cards and personal loans, and a gradual increase in loans offered by lenders other than banks and specialized financial institutions (SFIs).
• KResearch expects that Thai household debt may grow by less than 1.0 percent in 2024 as the overall economy continues to exhibit signs of a slow recovery, which limits household income growth and the ability to incur new debt. Given this, we at KResearch have downwardly revised our 2024 forecast for the household debt-to-GDP ratio to a range of 88.5-89.5 percent.
• According to a 3Q24 household debt survey conducted by KResearch, households in different income groups have varying abilities to manage debt burdens. Therefore, the decline in the household debt-to-GDP ratio at the national level may not immediately translate into improved debt burdens and repayment ability among individual households.