The 3-month Expected KR-ECI increased to 46.9 in April 2018 because households expected that their expenditures (excluding debt) would decline over the next three months after the Songkran spending spree and making tuition fee payments for their children.
Meanwhile, the KR-ECI for April 2018 slipped for the third consecutive month to 45.3 as some households incurred more expenditures during the Songkran festival amid rising cost of living in alignment with escalating domestic goods and service prices. However, certain households saw their income increasing as a result of the daily minimum wage hike in early April 2018. More favorable agricultural produce prices also drove up farm income.
KResearch is of the view that household sentiment toward the cost of living will likely improve over the next 1-2 months on ebbing expenditures. However, close attention must be paid to an expected rise in domestic prices of goods and services, driven by higher energy costs after global crude oil prices have surged to over USD70/barrel.