Display mode (Doesn't show in master page preview)

26 Apr 2023

Thai Economy

Thai exports contracted 4.5% YoY in 1Q23, pressured by the slowing global economy and the high base of 2022 (Business Brief No.4000 Full Ed.)


        Thai exports contracted for the sixth consecutive month in March 2023 at 4.2 percent YoY due to the high base of the previous year. When compared to the preceding month, March shipments, however, hit a 12-month high of USD27,654.4 million in line with higher exports of agricultural and industrial products in many categories. Nevertheless, the overall exports in 1Q23 shrank 4.5 percent YoY, while imports contracted slightly at 0.5 percent YoY. As a result, Thailand continued to sustain a trade deficit of USD3,044.2 million.
        Regarding the outlook for Thai exports during the remainder of 2023, KResearch views that they will likely be pressured by the global economic slowdown, along with uncertainties surrounding geopolitical issues, banking turmoil in many Western countries, extreme weather conditions and currency movements. Such factors, coupled with the steepest contraction in 1Q23 shipments, caused by the high base of 1Q22, have led KResearch to maintain our growth forecast of 2023 Thai exports at (-)1.2 percent. Looking ahead, we expect that Thai shipments will continue to contract in 2Q23, but they may resume growth during 2H23, due to the low base of last year. Although, Thailand’s trade balance reverted to a surplus of more than USD2.7 billion in March 2023, KResearch views that it will turn to a deficit due to the declining export value while imports are set to remain high in line with steady growth in domestic demand and volatile global crude oil prices.

View full article