8 Nov 2024
International Economy
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10 Nov 2022
Preliminary voting results of the US midterm elections, November 8, 2022, show that Republicans have inched closer to a House majority, while control of the Senate hinges on a few tight races. Regardless of whether Democrats can still hold a majority in the Senate, or not when the official voting results are to be announced after December 6, 2022, given that votes for the remaining four seats are being counted (as of November 10, 2022, both parties had the same number of seats 48:48), the fact that Democrats have lost their majority in the House of Representatives in the 2022 midterm elections could affect Joe Biden's administration over the next two years. ... Read more
4 Nov 2020
Preliminarily, products and businesses with ties to the US market will likely benefit from this historic election after braving the COVID-19 crisis this year, setting them on the path towards economic recovery in 2021. Indeed, the degree of recovery depends on the policies under the new president who will lead the United States for the next four years. KResearch projects that, under the tenure of Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and through a hefty budget for economic revitalization, the US economy is expected to expand by not less than 3.0 percent, more than in the scenario of President Donald Trump’s re-election, wherein economic growth could amount to less than 2.0 percent. ... Read more
22 Oct 2020
Special attention is being paid to the 2020 US presidential election, in particular visions and policy guidelines of presidential candidates to revive the US economy as the country is battling the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. KResearch is of the view that if Joe Biden, who is leading in the US election polls at the moment, becomes the new US President, the US economy may grow at least 3.0 percent in 2021, which would be higher than the projected growth of less than 2.0 percent in the case that President Trump can secure his reelection due to his administrative constraints. However, the outcome remains to be seen until the official announcement of the US presidential election results on January 20, 2021. ... Read more
17 Jul 2020
Over the course of the past two years that have been dominated by the US-China trade war, the US has been unable to reduce its trade deficit with China to the targeted level. Shifting the focus to Thailand, Thai export businesses incurred a net loss of USD 1.1 billion in related products. ... Read more
27 Apr 2020
The US economy is experiencing markedly elevated risk from the spread of COVID-19. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that the US economy in 2020 may contract by 5.9 percent, a decline comparable in severity to that of the Great Depression in 1930. The US economy severely contracted after the rate of COVID-19 infections spiked sharply, prompting the US authorities to issue fiscal stimulus packages with the highest limits in history. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has already made two emergency rate cuts, ... Read more
2 Aug 2019
US President Donald Trump eventually announced an additional 10 percent tariff on the remaining USD300 billion of Chinese imports, effective September 1, 2019, due mainly to the slow progress in the trade talks. In particular, Beijing is bargaining for conditions which are difficult to be achievable. KResearch views that this round of punitive tariffs will add pressure on Thai exports that are linked to China’s manufacturing supply chains, especially electronic parts which are used in household appliance production. Hence, the damage to Thailand’s exports is expected to increase to USD2.4 billion this year due to the escalating trade war (up from our initial projection of USD2.1 billion, which was calculated on the US punitive tariff of 25 percent on USD250 billion of Chinese imports only). The impact will become more evident in 2020 when the indirect effect from the slowing global economy will further drag overall outbound shipments from Thailand next year. ... Read more
7 May 2019
The trade talks between the US and China last week did not produce a satisfactory outcome either side. Moreover, the US President Donald Trump announced plans to further raise tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent starting Friday, May 10. The latest move puts greater pressure on world trade and reflects Washington’s effort to force Beijing to pursue negotiation guidelines in order for both sides to reach a mutually-satisfying agreement and stop the trade war by the end of 2019.... Read more
7 Nov 2018
At present, the fast-paced business world is fuelled largely by digital disruption. The tourism and hospitality business is one of the industries that has experienced a rapid evolution in the past decade, with Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) emerging to become a force to be reckoned with. The OTA business is driven by key global players which are poised to increase their presence and attach greater importance to the Asian region. The evidence is the value of merger and acquisition deals by the two OTA juggernauts in the Asian region; it represents 41 percent of their global M&As worth THB440 billion. ... Read more
14 Mar 2018
The US is pressing ahead with trade measures against trade partners globally. In addition to their new ‘safeguard tariffs’ on imported solar panels and large washing machines imposed early in 2018, and more recently on imported steel and aluminum, the US is now preparing to implement protectionist measures against Chinese products valued at around USD60 billion. This direction will likely add significant pressure to global trade, thus, KResearch views that all eyes should be closely kept on negotiations between the US and EU, both being among the largest economies in the world. Details on those negotiations are expected to be released before the relevant ‘safeguard tariffs’ on steel and aluminum become effective at the end of next week. If the EU and China are exempted from these new tariffs, prevailing anxiety will ease. But to the contrary, without such exemptions, China and the EU may opt to implement their own trade protectionist measures against the US, as well. This situation would likely escalate into further actions and reactions, incurring significant damage to trade that could spill over to other regions of the world.... Read more
2 Mar 2018
Throughout 2018, the US administration’s continual pursuit of protectionist trade measures has tended to increase volatility in global trade. Most recently, President Donald Trump announced that new “safeguard” tariffs would be imposed on steel and aluminum imports at 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively. Although no details have been released yet, it seems undeniable that trade with the US will become difficult, going forward.... Read more