• Thailand’s chicken meat production in 2025 is projected to reach 3.44 million tons, expanding by 1.3% from the previous year, in line with domestic consumption, which is expected to grow by 0.7%. The growth is supported by rising pork prices, a substitute product, as well as concerns over disease outbreaks in cattle.
• Thailand’s chicken product export value in 2025 is projected to reach USD 4,445 million, growing by 3.0% but slowing from 5.7% growth in the previous year. This reflects weaker demand in key trading partners such as Japan, the United Kingdom, and China amid economic conditions, as well as intensified price competition for market share.
Outlook for the domestic chicken products industry
In 2025, Thailand’s chicken meat production is projected to reach 3.44 million tons, expanding by 1.3% (Figure 2). Chicken remains the second most popular meat among consumers after pork, resulting in production aligning with domestic consumption demand, which is expected to rebound and grow by 0.7% this year as compared with the previous year. This growth is driven by higher pork prices as well as concerns over disease outbreaks in cattle, supporting continued growth in demand for chicken as a substitute product, given its higher protein content, lower fat, and relatively lower price as compared with other meats.
Farm-gate chicken prices are projected to increase by 3.5% from the previous year (Figure 3), in line with persistently high production costs. Although animal feed prices are trending downward, other costs are expected to rise, including expenses related to maintaining farm standards and disease prevention, as well as utility costs. Meanwhile, retail prices can only increase to a limited extent, as chicken is a price-controlled product. As a result, operators will need to continue focusing on cost management to maintain revenue and profit margins.
Competition in the domestic chicken products industry
Major chicken product manufacturers continue to compete fiercely for market share. Currently, there are 1,252 players in the chicken product manufacturing business (legal entities only), with approximately 80% being small-scale operators and the remaining 20% being medium- and large-sized operators.
However, chicken output from smallholder farms accounts for only about 10% of total broiler production, while the remaining 90% comes from large operators with fully integrated investments across the entire value chain from upstream to downstream. This includes company-owned farms as well as contract farming arrangements with small-scale farmers. Competition among these major players remains intense, particularly in terms of product quality and the launch of new products to capture market share.
Outlook for Thailand’s chicken product exports
Thailand’s chicken product export value in 2025 is projected to reach USD 4,445 million, expanding by 3.0% but slowing from the previous year’s growth across both processed chicken products and the chilled and frozen chicken segments (Figure 4).
Processed chicken accounts for around 70% of Thailand’s total chicken product export value. In 2025, exports are expected to grow by approximately 3.8%, slowing from 7.7% in the previous year, due to weaker demand from key trading partners such as Japan and the United Kingdom (Figure 5).
• Japan: Although some Thai processed chicken exports have benefited from Japan’s suspension of chicken imports from Brazil due to avian influenza outbreaks, as well as domestic outbreaks within Japan, growth remains constrained by intense price competition from China. The average export price of China’s processed chicken to Japan during 2023–2024 was about 13% lower than Thailand’s, which may limit overall export growth.
• United Kingdom: Although consumption demand is increasing, domestic chicken production is also rising. In 2025, poultry production in the United Kingdom is projected to expand by around 2–3%, which may limit the growth of import orders from Thailand as compared with the previous year.
Chilled and frozen chicken accounts for around 30% of Thailand’s total chicken product export value. In 2025, exports are expected to grow by approximately 1.3%, slowing from 1.6% in the previous year.
• China: Growth in exports to China, Thailand’s key trading partner, is expected to remain modest amid ongoing economic uncertainties in China. Thailand may also gain limited benefits from China’s partial suspension of chilled and frozen chicken imports from Brazil and the United States due to avian influenza outbreaks, as China’s domestic chicken production has increased and imports have shifted more toward Russia. This is reflected in Russia’s share of China’s import value rising from 8% in 2021 to 15% in 2024.
• United Arab Emirates: Although it is a new market accounting for only around 2-3% of Thailand’s export share, exports are expected to continue growing in line with rising demand for halal chicken. This is reflected in export value during the first five months of this year, which increased by more than fivefold as compared with the same period last year.
In addition to partner-specific factors that have contributed to slower growth in Thailand’s export value, exchange rate movements-particularly the appreciation of the Thai baht-may also push up Thailand’s chicken export prices relative to competitors.
Competition in the chicken products export market
Thailand’s chicken products are expected to face intensifying competition, particularly from key competitors such as Brazil and China, which continue to hold price advantages. Although Thailand’s strengths lie in product quality and standards, as well as advanced processing technology and the ability to customize products to meet customer requirements, risks remain from major competitors, including the United States, Brazil, and China, whose advantages include lower animal feed costs and large-scale production that are supported by economies of scale.
Meanwhile, Thailand relies heavily on imported animal feed ingredients (soybean meal and feed corn), which account for no less than 60% of total domestic demand. As a result, production costs in Thailand remain relatively high, making Thailand’s chicken products more expensive than those of competitors (Figure 6).
This situation is expected to put pressure on Thailand’s exports over the next 1-2 years as competition for market share intensifies amid a slowing global economy. Businesses may therefore need to lower prices to maintain sales or accept reduced profit margins.
Furthermore, the expansion of Thai production bases within ASEAN to gain a competitive advantage is another factor that may lead to a slowdown in Thailand’s chicken exports in the future. This is reflected in the declining compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of Thailand’s chicken export value, which decreased from an average 9.0% during 2015-2019 to 6.5% during 2020-2024.
Risks to the Thailand’s chicken product business.
• Production costs remain volatile, particularly animal feed costs (Figure 7), which account for around 60-70% of total production costs. However, Thailand relies heavily on imports, making it vulnerable to weather fluctuations and exchange rate movements. Meanwhile, other production factors, such as broiler breeds, farm management costs, and utilities to meet safety and disease control standards, are also trending upward. These factors may put pressure on the industry’s average gross profit margin, potentially reducing it from the current level of around 20%-30%.
• Trade barriers from both tariff and non-tariff measures remain a key risk. The uncertain outlook of a new round of trade tensions could weigh on economic growth in major trading partners, potentially reducing demand for Thailand’s chicken products. In addition, exporters must comply with increasingly stringent regulations, including food safety standards, residue and drug control standards, and farm and animal welfare standards, as well as ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) criteria that impact production processes, such as raw material traceability and packaging selection. Therefore, businesses need to invest more in management systems and production quality to build confidence with trading partners, particularly those in the European Union and Japan, which are increasingly stringent with these standards.
• Over-reliance on a single export market is another key risk. Thailand depends heavily on major markets such as Japan and the United Kingdom, which together account for more than 60% of the total chicken product export value and are highly competitive markets. To mitigate market concentration risks, exporters should explore opportunities to expand into new potential markets, such as the Middle East, New Zealand, and Canada.
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