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4 Feb 2022

Econ Digest

Pharmaceutical industry in 2022 expected to grow 3-5% despite improved COVID-19 situation

คะแนนเฉลี่ย

        The spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 is likely to affect the recovery of the business sector and the purchasing power of households in contrast to the continuously increasing cost of living, including prices of meat, eggs and vegetable oil. The pharmaceutical industry is one of the key industries of the healthcare business, which is likely to grow well, as over 30-40% of consumers’ total healthcare costs are related to pharmaceuticals, and the value of Thailand’s imported pharmaceuticals in 2021 continued to grow by 13.0% from 2020, partly due to the imports of drugs to treat COVID-19 patients. KResearch views that despite improving signs seen in the COVID-19 situation, which may cause demand for related medicines to decline, existing local patients and some segments of international patients, who have common diseases, are expected to gradually resume medical services in Thailand. Additionally, the number of patients with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) is set to increase after Thailand becomes a completely aged society in 2022. As a result, turnover in the Thai pharmaceutical market may reach THB233-238 billion in 2022, an increase of 3.0-5.0%YoY, against the 2.5% growth reported for 2021

        KResearch expects that pharmaceuticals sold through state hospitals will increase ahead, especially for senior citizens as they are heavily dependent on the state medical welfare. Meanwhile, drug stores will experience increased competition from the proliferation of drug franchises and sales points at shopping malls. Spending on original drugs versus generic drugs is at 45:55 of the country’s total drug spending.

        Growth in the pharmaceutical market in Thailand will be enjoyed mainly by producers and importers because more than 70% of the turnover is contributed by imported drugs. Given this, KResearch views that if Thailand wants to be less dependent on imported drugs, both the public and private sectors must collaborate to support the entire process of drug supply chains in terms of quality and manufacturing standards to build confidence and acceptance with users, and promote the use of locally-produced drugs. Such efforts can begin with generic drugs for which Thailand has the manufacturing capacity though Thailand will have to rely on imported original drugs as related R&D is time consuming and requires costly investment.

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