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7 Apr 2022

Econ Digest

Guidelines to cope with global warming crisis

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        Global warming is affecting the world. The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report shows that at least 95% of coal energy use, 60% of oil use and 45% of natural gas use must be reduced if we were to reach a net zero target and limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. Failure to take urgent action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will result in a global temperature rise of 3.2 degrees Celsius by 2100 and will expose the world to numerous severe natural disasters.     
      
        Every country has recognized and prioritized the issues of global warming and global climate change that affect the world. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III has released a new report of Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change on April 4, in addition to the Working Group II report that had previously addressed the impact of severe natural disasters from global warming. This latest report says that without urgent action to reduce massive greenhouse gas emissions from now on, the global temperature will rise by another 3.2 degrees Celsius by 2100, which is twice the 1.5 degrees Celsius that global leaders pledged at the COP26 to hold the global temperature from the industrial revolution level in 1850. The report has also analyzed the shortcomings of current government actions around the world, where greenhouse gas emissions have increased by as much as 12% over the past decade, with 65% of that increase coming from fossil fuels use and the industrial sectors. Although the use of clean energy, renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies are now increasing, and the cost of producing clean energy has also been greatly reduced -- for example, the unit cost of electricity solar and wind power generation is 85% and 55% lower than a decade ago respectively -- the volume of energy produced is still insufficient to meet current energy demand. To achieve the net zero goal and limit global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2050, countries around the world must work together to reduce energy use by at least 95% for coal, 60% for oil, and 45% for natural gas by 2050. Preliminary estimates by IPCC experts suggest that a transition period to hold the global temperature rise to below 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 will affect global economic activities, with global GDP expected to decline by 1.3-2.7% YOY, or by an average of 0.04 – 0.09% per year by 2050.

        However, the reduction of greenhouse gases remains more or less dependent on the cooperation of all parties. The above IPCC report reveals that if all parties work together to reduce energy demand and change behavior (demand-side strategies), this could help reduce greenhouse gases by 40-70% by 2050. In particular, changing people’s behavior, such as reducing meat consumption and reducing the use of single-use plastics in food, would help reduce greenhouse gases by 8 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e), or adapting travel habits, such as walking, cycling, using public transport and electric vehicles, would help reduce greenhouse gases by 6.5 gigatons of tCO2e.
           
        Besides, governments play an important role in supporting people to change their behavior to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Thai government has now started to implement policies such as the policy to reduce the supply of single-use plastic bags in retail outlets since 2020, and the 30@30 policy to support electric vehicles, which aims to produce at least 30% of domestic zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) by 2030. To this end, 725,000 EV cars and pickup trucks, 650,000 EV motorcycles and 33,000 EV buses and trucks will be produced. In the first phase, the government has approved reductions in import tariffs and excise taxes on EV cars and will provide subsidies of THB70,000-150,000 per EV car/pickup truck and THB18,000 per electric motorcycle, to help reduce prices and attract more consumers. It has recently been found that the retail prices of electric vehicles from automakers that have signed agreements with the government have been reduced by THB160,500-161,000, and bookings for EVs reached 2,000 units during the Motor Show held on March 21-April 3, 2022. Moreover, clean energy buses will start operating in Bangkok from this August.
            
        The government also offers a variety of tax benefits through the approval of the Board of Investment of Thailand (BOI) to support the private sector in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, including:

  • For the purchase of new machinery that can effectively reduce energy consumption or use alternative energy sources or reduce various pollution emissions according to the standards established, machinery import duties are exempted and corporate income tax is exempted for three years, which is equivalent to 50 percent of the amount invested in improving the efficiency of the machinery.
  • The development of modern agricultural technology that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and sustainable agricultural technologies that enhance production efficiency will be exempted from corporate income tax for 3 years, with the exemption amount not exceeding 120% of the total investment.
  • Promotion measures of comprehensive electric vehicle business, including the manufacture of electric cars, electric motorcycles, and electric vehicle parts and equipment, will be exempted from corporate income tax for 3-11 years, depending on the type of business.
  • Natural gas separation plants or petrochemical producers that use carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology to capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere will be exempted from corporate income tax for 8 years.
        
        In addition to policies to promote behavior change, the government is currently accelerating the implementation of key policies to support infrastructure and technology development, such as the development of carbon credit trading platforms and various industry standards to encourage the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the industrial sector, as well as to support the sustainable green business development in the bio-circular-green (BCG) industry. It is expected that Thailand will be able to achieve its carbon neutrality goal or net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, if all sectors, including the public, private and the government, work together.  

1. Source: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/
https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/key-takeaways-ipcc-report-climate-change-mitigation-2022-04-04/
2. Source: Data from the Energy Policy and Planning Office

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