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7 May 2026

Econ Digest

Thai and global economic conditions for May 2026

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Global economy

  • Stagflation risks are rising amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Rising goods prices in the US may pressure the Fed to keep interest rates at 3.50–3.75% through year-end.
  • Despite currency intervention, the Japanese Yen continues to weaken, which may increase pressure on the BOJ to raise interest rates if inflation accelerates.

 
Thai economy

  • KResearch has preliminarily revised down Thailand's 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.9% prior to the Iran war, due to weakening purchasing power and a slowdown in the tourism sector.
  • Thailand's inflation rate is expected to increase to 3.4% in 2026, driven by higher fuel, transportation, and raw material costs.
  • Thailand's exports are expected to grow more strongly than anticipated, but imports are also rising rapidly, resulting in a limited net impact on the Thai economy.​

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Econ Digest