The final two months of the year mark a holiday season for European tourists who often escape the harsh winter cold to warmer seaside destinations in Asia. In Thailand, beach resorts along the Andaman Coast and the Gulf of Thailand have proved to be very popular with this tourist segment.
If there are no unfortunate events, KResearch expects that international tourist arrivals to Thailand will reach at least 3 million persons during the final two months of 2010, increasing 1.4 percent YoY, supported by greater arrivals of tourists from Russia, Eastern Europe, Scandinavia and Asian countries such as China, South Korea, Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong.
Meanwhile, KResearch sees two scenarios for Southern tourism that has been hit by severe flooding since early November (if the situation will not be worsened with further tropical storms), depending on the speed of efforts to rehabilitate damaged tourism attractions and restoration of international tourist confidence toward safety.
First scenario: There would be no severe losses to Southern tourism should the impact of flooding not last into December. In this scenario, the number of trips made by tourists to the Southern region would decline by about 200,000 trips, down 7 percent from the projection made before the flooding. This would mean THB1.1 billion in tourism losses, declining 2.5 percent from the previous forecast.
Second scenario: There would be severe losses to Southern tourism should the impact of flooding carry into December.In this scenario, the number of trips made by tourists to the Southern region would decline by as many as 450,000 trips, down 14 percent from our projection before the flooding. This would amount to about THB2.2 billion in tourism losses, declining 5 percent from our previous projection.