KResearch views that flooding in Bangkok may affect our inbound tourism during 4Q11 and the number of international tourist arrivals for 2011 overall may drop by 350,000-600,000 persons, with a loss of around THB15-25 Billion to our tourism industry, against the 19.29 million foreign tourists visiting Thailand, and tourism income of THB730 billion as per our former forecast.
Flooding Impact Estimates: Thailand's Inbound Tourism, 2011
|
Scenario
|
Foreign Tourists, 4Q11
(Million Travelers)
|
Foreign Tourists,
2011 Overall (Million travelers)
|
Tourism Income,
2011 (THB Mil.)
|
|
Prior to flooding
|
4.9
|
19.29
|
730,000
|
|
After flooding
|
|
|
|
|
Base Scenario: Flooding situation subsides by November, allowing us to welcome foreign tourists by December. During the final two months of 2011, the number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand drops by 250,000 from the former forecast.
|
4.55
(This includes a fall of 100,000 tourists in October, so the total decrease will reach 350,000.*)
|
18.94
|
715,000
(Dropping THB15 billion)
|
|
Worst-Case Scenario: Flooding extends to December, thus Thailand cannot welcome foreign tourists by December. During the final two months of 2011, the number of foreign tourists visiting Thailand drops 500,000 from the former forecast.
|
4.3
(This includes a fall of 100,000 tourists in October, so the total decrease will reach 600,000.*)
|
18.69
|
705,000
(Dropping THB25 billion)
|
Source: Estimates by KResearch Note: *Compared to the previous forecast prior to flooding.
The estimates on impacts in the above two scenarios are subject to:
- Suvarnabhumi International Airport remains open.
- Popular beaches in Southern and Eastern Thailand are not affected by the flooding and are able to accommodate foreign tourists as usual.
- Public relations programs by private and government agencies are undertaken in international tourism markets to update tourists on the situation that has hit only some parts of our country, while southern and eastern beaches, which are popular among foreign tourists, remain unaffected.
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