China's economy powered ahead in 3Q13, growing 7.8 percent YoY and 2.2 percent QoQ, its steepest increase in three quarters, thanks to higher fixed-investments in the manufacturing sector, though exports had expanded only moderately. That third quarter GDP performance was supported by government's efforts to sustain growth via various fiscal and monetary policies.
In 4Q13, we at KResearch expect that global economic uncertainties, especially in the US – a key trade partner for China – will cause China to continue with existing fiscal and monetary policies to meet its target of 7.5 percent growth this year. Those policies may not be relaxed much since China is now focusing on ‘quality growth', meaning that its 4Q13 GDP growth may slow from the 7.8 percent pace in 3Q13 due to a high 4Q12 base.
However, KResearch also expects that the Chinese government will be able to sustain its growth at 7.5 percent, or somewhere between 7.3-7.7 percent this year. Key policies that should be monitored closely to the yearend include the government's economic structural reforms and details of the Shanghai Free Trade Zone, which are expected to be unveiled after the Third Plenum of the 18th Chinese Communist Party Congress on November 3, 2013.