16 Jul 2024
International Economy
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17 Jan 2023
China’s zero-COVID policy led to its economic growth of only 3.0 percent in 2022, the lowest in more than five decades (Business Brief No.3987)... Read more
29 Dec 2022
While the China-Lao PDR high-speed railway is entering its second year of operation, transport of goods between southern China and ASEAN is expected to become more active. China’s potential reopening following positive signals on gradual relaxation of its zero-COVID measures will generate greater benefits for trade and tourism through the route.... Read more
26 Oct 2022
The Chinese economy grew better-than-expected at 3.9 percent YoY in 3Q22, bettering the 0.4 percent growth reported for 2Q22. During 9M22, the Chinese economy expanded 3.0 percent, buoyed by the relaxation of lockdown measures in major cities such as Shanghai, allowing its manufacturing sector to recover. The government economic stimulus measures, with a combined worth of more than CNY1 trillion, also helped bolster the Chinese economy. ... Read more
19 Sep 2022
China has been severely affected by a heat wave and drought. Although the situation has eased in some areas, the heat wave crisis may persist and affect crops that are to be harvested during the remainder of this year. This would boost imports into China, especially rice, wheat and maize.... Read more
16 Jul 2022
China’s economy grew by 0.4 percent YoY in 2Q22 and 2.5 percent in 1H22. In the second half of 2022, China’s economy will likely improve but continue to face risks from its zero-COVID policy and ongoing property sector slowdown. For full-year 2022, its economic growth is projected to be in a range of 3.7-4.2 percent.... Read more
18 Apr 2022
China’s economy grew 4.8 percent YoY and 1.3 percent QoQ in the first quarter of 2022 amid pressing issues. Details concerning China’s economic growth in 1Q22 are as follows... Read more
17 Jan 2022
China’s 4Q21 Economy Grew at Slowest Rate of 4.0% YoY in 2021, but 2022 GPD Growth Projected at 5.0%... Read more
1 Nov 2021
The Cabinet Meeting on October 12, 2021, discussed the “Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership” (CPTPP). The agreement garnered renewed attention in September after China expressed interest in becoming a member. Taiwan followed suit in submitting its application, while the United Kingdom applied for membership of CPTPP early this year. International stance, particularly that of China, has prompted countries with strong economic and trade relations with China to reconsider joining the CPTPP. ... Read more
18 Oct 2021
China’s economy in 3Q21 faced a wide range of economic issues, whereas China’s stimulus packages remain rather limited. As a result, the country’s economic growth in 3Q21 slowed to 4.9 percent YoY, following year-on-year growth of 18.3 percent in 1Q21 and 7.9 percent in 2Q21. Details are as follows:... Read more
16 Jul 2021
In the latest 14th plan for national and economic development, China has set a target to become a carbon -free nation by 2060 or over the next four decades. KResearch, however, is of the view that it will take China some time to achieve that target as its carbon emissions are growing unabated post-COVID pandemic. Presently, Chinese industries that are responsible for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, such as coal, iron and steel, cement, thermal energy, chemicals and automobiles, have been under the government’s stringent control. Thai exports related to energy and minerals to China amount to only 2 percent or USD693 million of Thailand’s total shipments during 2020.... Read more
16 Apr 2021
China’s economy in 1Q21 grew 18.3 percent YoY, sharply higher than 4Q20 which saw 6.5 percent growth YoY, setting the highest quarterly year-on-year growth in 29 years since China began to publish such data in 1992. This surge was primarily attributed to a low base in 1Q20, during which China’s economy shrank by 6.8 percent YoY. On a QoQ basis, which may better depict the present economic growth, China’s economy grew by a mere 0.6 percent due to the fragility of private consumption, the uneven recovery of the manufacturing sector and investment in each industry, and the overall exports, which remain under pressure from the fragile global economic recovery. ... Read more
22 Mar 2021
In the government policy statement reported at the National People’s Congress held in early March 2021, China’s Premier, Li Keqiang, announced that China would target an economic growth of more than 6 percent p.a. in 2021. KResearch is of the view that the setting of such a relatively low economic growth target is symbolic to reflect the government’s initial step in adjusting the country’s paradigm towards quality and sustainable growth. KResearch, however, maintains our growth forecast for the Chinese economy at 8.0-8.5 percent for 2021, though its economic growth may lean towards the lower end of our forecast range at 8.0 percent due to a number of factors, as follows... Read more
18 Jan 2021
The economy of China in 4Q20 grew by 6.5 percent YoY, amounting to full-year growth that exceeded the projection, at 2.3 percent YoY. The figures reflect China’s success in efficiently controlling the COVID-19 pandemic and implementing both monetary and fiscal stimuli in a timely and effective manner. As evidenced, retail sales grew steadily in the range of 4.3-5.0 percent YoY in the final quarter of 2020. ... Read more
19 Oct 2020
The Chinese economy in 3Q20 grew 4.9 percent YoY, continuing the positive trend from 2Q20, which saw 3.2 percent growth YoY. This expansion can be attributed to the gradual recovery experienced by the private sector, particularly domestic tourism activities that have only recently regained their vigor, after the Chinese authorities announced a relaxation of travel restrictions within the country in mid-July 2020.... Read more
23 Sep 2020
In September 2020, China sent a positive signal in regard to its economic development plan that laid out the country’s strategies for the next five years, from 2021 through 2025. Of particular interest is China’s return to stockpiling commodities with an emphasis on food security. Such actions will lead to increased demand for Chinese agricultural products, which may drive global agricultural commodity prices to see renewed upward trend.... Read more
17 Jul 2020
Over the course of the past two years that have been dominated by the US-China trade war, the US has been unable to reduce its trade deficit with China to the targeted level. Shifting the focus to Thailand, Thai export businesses incurred a net loss of USD 1.1 billion in related products. ... Read more
The Chinese economy reverted to growth of 3.2 percent YoY in 2Q20, versus the 6.8 percent YoY contraction reported for 1Q20, thanks to the government’s effective measures in combating the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, thus allowing economic activity in the country to return to normalcy. Its industrial production resumed a 4.8 percent YoY growth in June, ... Read more
30 Jan 2020
The transmission of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (n-CoV) continues to escalate, prompting the Chinese authorities to take extreme measures to prevent the virus from spreading. For example, they locked down 18 cities in Hubei province by closing off access to the cities and transportation in the province. Moreover, group tours and travel packages organized by both domestic and international travel agents are suspended.... Read more
17 Jan 2020
China’s economy, in 4Q19, slowed from the previous quarter to grow 6.0 percent YoY, driven by positive factors from the latest development of the US trade conflict with China. The partial agreement was attributed to the turnaround of China’s export and manufacturing sectors in 4Q19 with acceleration of exports after the US had hinted at delaying tariff imposition and resuming talks with China. Nonetheless, overall China’s economic indicators in 2019 declined significantly from the figures in 2018. China’s economy grew 6.1 percent in 2019, which was a substantial drop from the 6.6 percent growth in 2018. The positive economic figures in 4Q19 were pushed mainly by short-term factors and a low base. The stimulus measures somewhat sustained the growth in 2019 amid a fragile domestic economy. ... Read more
16 Jan 2020
The US-China phase 1 trade pact was officially inked on January 15, 2020, lifting hopes that their 2-year tensions could ease. However, the US and China will continue to experience higher tariffs, in particular China, as some of its exports to US are still subject to additional tariffs at the rate of 7.5 percent despite the US decision to reduce tariffs on Chinese imports worth USD120 billion while other Chinese imports worth USD250 billion are still subject to tariffs at the rate of 25 percent in 2020. ... Read more
20 Sep 2019
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has announced a plan to release its own central bank digital currency (CBDC) with an aim to increase the role of the Chinese Yuan on the world market and to combat money laundering. The new currency will be retail CBDC that Chinese can use in lieu of cash. It will be backed 1:1 by Renminbi fiat and managed by a two-tiered structured system. PBOC will issue and circulate the digital currency to commercial banks and other players in China’s digital currency system (the first tier), enabling these commercial banks and other players to offer deposit and withdrawal services for digital currency to the general public (the second tier).... Read more
7 Aug 2019
The People's Bank of China allowed its currency to fall below 7 Yuan to the US Dollar for the first time in 11 years after the US announced last week that it would slap a 10 percent tariff on USD300 billion of Chinese goods. The latest move by Beijing signals its readiness to retaliate against the US by allowing the Yuan currency to depreciate. China may use additional currency depreciation measures as a retaliatory action, and to ease the negative impact of tariffs on the Chinese economy. KResearch views that the Chinese authorities are unlikely to let the Yuan currency significantly weaken, because a drastic change in currency value could adversely affect China’s financial stability and shake investor confidence. ... Read more
2 Aug 2019
US President Donald Trump eventually announced an additional 10 percent tariff on the remaining USD300 billion of Chinese imports, effective September 1, 2019, due mainly to the slow progress in the trade talks. In particular, Beijing is bargaining for conditions which are difficult to be achievable. KResearch views that this round of punitive tariffs will add pressure on Thai exports that are linked to China’s manufacturing supply chains, especially electronic parts which are used in household appliance production. Hence, the damage to Thailand’s exports is expected to increase to USD2.4 billion this year due to the escalating trade war (up from our initial projection of USD2.1 billion, which was calculated on the US punitive tariff of 25 percent on USD250 billion of Chinese imports only). The impact will become more evident in 2020 when the indirect effect from the slowing global economy will further drag overall outbound shipments from Thailand next year. ... Read more
17 Jul 2019
China's economic growth in 2Q19 grew at 6.2 percent, the slowest growth rate in 27 years and down from 6.4 percent in 1Q19. Consequently, China’s gross domestic product in 1H19 rose only 6.3 percent. The slump is a result of a fall in the global and domestic demands. Moreover, the prolonged trade war between the US and China has increased the downward pressure on the Chinese economy. China's exports shrank 1 percent YoY in 2Q19 versus a growth of 1.3 percent YOY in 1Q19. The drop in Chinese exports has taken a toll on China’s industrial sector. China’s Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index for June declined to 49.4. The reading below 50 signals contraction in China’s manufacturing activity. Moreover, China experienced weaker domestic demand as imports continued to drop to minus growth of 4.1 percent in 2Q19, even though the Chinese government is trying to use various measures to stimulate the economy such as cuts in value added and import taxes and an increase in the government spending budget in infrastructure projects to over 2 trillion Yuan (USD297 billion). However, China’s economy is still losing steam. This shows that these measures may not be enough to boost the economy, and they may only help cushion the slump.... Read more
28 Jun 2019
All eyes are on the G20 Summit, in particular a talk between the US and China, the world’s superpowers, to end the trade war that will last for a year in July 2019. Looking back, it is believed that the US and China knew that they would not benefit from the persistent trade war. A clear consequence of their trade dispute is now seen in rising prices of their imported products and this has hurt their consumers and manufacturers. The stances of the US and Chinese leaders in ending the trade war are based on political benefits and their popularity at home.... Read more
7 May 2019
The trade talks between the US and China last week did not produce a satisfactory outcome either side. Moreover, the US President Donald Trump announced plans to further raise tariffs on USD200 billion of Chinese goods from 10 to 25 percent starting Friday, May 10. The latest move puts greater pressure on world trade and reflects Washington’s effort to force Beijing to pursue negotiation guidelines in order for both sides to reach a mutually-satisfying agreement and stop the trade war by the end of 2019.... Read more
17 Apr 2019
Chinese economy in 1Q19 expanded 6.4 percent YoY compared to 6.6 percent growth in 2018, while exports increased only 1.0 percent YoY versus 9.9 percent in 2018. Nonetheless, the government’s stimulus policy has begun to bear fruit to support the growth momentum of the Chinese economy. The Chinese government has given an approval to 16 infrastructure projects since December 2018 with a combined investment of CNY1 trillion (USD160 billion), pushing the fixed asset investment in 1Q19 to accelerate 6.3 percent YoY versus 5.9 percent YoY in 2018. Additionally, the domestic consumption begins to recover, thanks to the government’s economic stimulus measures. China’s retail sector surged at the highest rate in six months at 8.7 percent YoY. ... Read more
22 Jan 2019
China’s economy grew 6.6 percent in 2018, declining substantially from the 6.8 percent pace recorded in 2017. Its economy has weakened steadily, especially during 4Q18 to 6.4 percent, representing the lowest growth in 28 years. The sharp decline in 4Q18 economic performance was attributable chiefly to a decelerated export growth of 4.3 percent YoY against the 11.1 percent pace reported for 3Q18. China’s disappointing export performance was clearly a result of the protracted trade war, which has crippled its business sector to make profit. In November 2018, profit in the Chinese business sector contracted for the first time in over three years at only 1.8 percent despite attempts by the government to sustain economic growth through numerous policy tools, including liquidity injection via financial institutions and easing control of local government investment. A slower growth in M1 at only 1.5 percent in December also shows that the effectiveness of China’s monetary policy has become increasingly restricted and liquidity injection into the economic system was intended only to maintain financial costs. As a result, private investment will continue to be subdued ahead. In addition, the slowing GDP growth seen in the tertiary industry signals that domestic demand has began to decline. ... Read more
7 Nov 2018
At present, the fast-paced business world is fuelled largely by digital disruption. The tourism and hospitality business is one of the industries that has experienced a rapid evolution in the past decade, with Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) emerging to become a force to be reckoned with. The OTA business is driven by key global players which are poised to increase their presence and attach greater importance to the Asian region. The evidence is the value of merger and acquisition deals by the two OTA juggernauts in the Asian region; it represents 41 percent of their global M&As worth THB440 billion. ... Read more
25 May 2018
Finally, China and the US have reached a compromise to ease trade tensions. Recently, Beijing announced that it will cut tariffs on imported passenger cars from 25 to 15 percent and auto parts from 10 to 6 percent, effective July 1, 2018. Looking forward, China is set to announce a string of measures, starting from the latest tariff cuts on American goods to other areas as follows... Read more
19 Apr 2018
In KResearch’s view, China’s economy may slow over the remainder of 2018, along with exports that will likely weaken as well, amid full-year growth that is expected to reach 6.6 percent YoY. Because accelerated shipments were already transacted before the effectiveness of new tariff rates per Section 301 of the US’s Trade Act of 1974 at the end of 2Q18, impacts of those increased tariffs would not be very serious. Also, key Chinese products, e.g., mobile phones and PCBs, are not included in the new taxation. Therefore, China’s outward trade in 2018 should still expand, given an up-cycle in global electronics business. However, with demand now weakening and a high 2017 base, this leads KResearch to project slower growth in China’s 2018 exports at perhaps 4.5-5.5 percent YoY, versus the 7.9-percent pace in 2017, assuming that trade disputes between the two countries do not escalate and a satisfactory conclusion can be reached within 2H18.... Read more
14 Mar 2018
The US is pressing ahead with trade measures against trade partners globally. In addition to their new ‘safeguard tariffs’ on imported solar panels and large washing machines imposed early in 2018, and more recently on imported steel and aluminum, the US is now preparing to implement protectionist measures against Chinese products valued at around USD60 billion. This direction will likely add significant pressure to global trade, thus, KResearch views that all eyes should be closely kept on negotiations between the US and EU, both being among the largest economies in the world. Details on those negotiations are expected to be released before the relevant ‘safeguard tariffs’ on steel and aluminum become effective at the end of next week. If the EU and China are exempted from these new tariffs, prevailing anxiety will ease. But to the contrary, without such exemptions, China and the EU may opt to implement their own trade protectionist measures against the US, as well. This situation would likely escalate into further actions and reactions, incurring significant damage to trade that could spill over to other regions of the world.... Read more
6 Mar 2018
All eyes were on the National People’s Congress, March 5, 2018, because the ruling Communist Party proposed constitutional a... Read more
19 Dec 2017
China’s latest economic indicators show that the Chinese economy has maintained momentum. Although China’s domestic economic activity shows signs of a mild slowdown, their external trade remained solid. China’s economy continues to expand, but industrial manufacturing and investment have cooled, underscored by November industrial output rising 6.1 percent YoY, below the 6.2 percent gain in October, decelerating for a second month in a row. At the same time, China’s fixed-asset investments have slowed from early in the year to 7.2 percent growth YoY over January-November (11M17), versus the 7.3 percent YoY increase over January-October (10M17), marking a fifth consecutive monthly decline and the lowest growth so far this year.... Read more
21 Sep 2017
Thai exports to Cambodia have risen over the past decade (2008-2016), recording an average growth of 12.6 percent YoY, excluding exports of... Read more
Thai exports to Cambodia have risen over the past decade (2008-2016), recording an average growth of 12.6 percent YoY, excluding exports of refined petroleum products and gold because those prices are volatile in nature. However, it is noteworthy that the growth rate over the past five years (2012-2016) had slowed to 2.2 percent YOY versus the 18.6 percent YoY pace recorded during 2007-2011. This trend likely reflects changes in Cambodia’s economic structure, and perhaps, some worrisome prospects for Thai exports toward competitiveness in the Cambodian market.... Read more
18 Sep 2017
Key real economy indicators released September 14th indicated a slowdown on both the supply and demand sides. Industrial output for August expanded 6.0% YoY, down considerably from 6.4% during July, while fixed-asset investment grew 7.8% YTD YoY, slumping substantially from 8.3% during January-July. Retail sales increased 10.1% YoY in August, down from 10.4% over July. ... Read more
25 May 2017
On May 24, Moody's Investors Service lowered China's sovereign credit rating by one notch to A1, from Aa3 previously, but raised their outlook to ... Read more
18 May 2017
China's April 2017 economic indicators showed signs of weakness as a consequence of state implementation of programs to deal with overcapacity in th... Read more
17 Feb 2017
In January 2017, China's foreign exchange (FX) reserves fell to less than USD3 trillion for the first time in six years. This decline in its FX res... Read more
20 Jan 2017
It is expected that China will face significant hurdles in supervising the Yuan volatility throughout 2017 amid continuing economic slowdown. The fi... Read more
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