17 Jan 2023 International Economy China’s zero-COVID policy led to its economic growth of only 3.0 percent in 2022, the lowest in more than five decades (Business Brief No.3987) คะแนนเฉลี่ย คะแนนเฉลี่ย 5 stars 4 stars 3 stars 2 stars 1 star In 2023, China’s economy is likely to see improved recovery following the cancellation of the zero-COVID policy. However, its economic growth is expected to remain lower than pre-pandemic levels amid risks from the property sector slowdown and geopolitical conflicts. Chinese economic growth in 4Q22 dropped to 2.9 percent YoY, from 3.9 percent YoY in 3Q22. A key factor behind the growth in 4Q22 was investment in fixed assets. Meanwhile, consumer spending, as reflected in retail sales, continued to shrink. For full-year 2022, the Chinese economy grew 3.0 percent, mainly driven by investment. Year-on-year, fixed-asset investment grew by 5.1 percent, while consumer spending was hit by the zero-COVID policy. China’s exports slowed at the end of the year due to the global economic slowdown, leading to full-year growth of only 7.0 percent YoY. Cancellation of the zero-COVID policy should contribute to China’s economic recovery in 2023, led by domestic spending whereas its international trade has heavily been pressured by the global economic slowdown. China’s reopening came earlier than markets had forecast amid the risk stemming from public health system. Under these circumstances, Chinese economic activity is unlikely to return to a full recovery anytime soon. During one to two months following the Chinese New Year festival, however, the number of COVID cases is expected to have passed its peak and should gradually decrease, possibly in 2Q23. This would be a boon to the start of its economic recovery, especially with the return of domestic spending. However, China will face several key risks that need close attention, including 1) the ailing property industry; 2) geopolitical risks that remain intensified – both tensions between China and Taiwan, and the US-China conflict; and 3) structural problems and policy uncertainties. In summary, the Chinese economy in 2023 is projected to expand by 4.6 percent YoY. Growth will likely remain sluggish compared to pre-pandemic levels, amid major risks that must still be monitored. View full article Login / Register Or Enter the code from the poll Annotation This research paper is published for general public. It is made up of various sources. Trustworthy, but the company can not authenticate. reliability The information may be changed at any time without prior notice. Data users need to be careful about the use of information. The Company will not be liable to any user or person for any damages arising from such use. The information in this report does not constitute an offer. Or advice on business decisions Anyhow. International Economy China Related Analysis View all 14 Mar 2018 International Economy Thailand must brace for trade disputes between the US, EU and China, etc. (Current Issue No. 2905) The US is pressing ahead with trade measures against trade partners globally. In addition to their new ‘safeguard tariffs’ on imported solar panels and large washing machines imposed early in 2018, and more recently on imported steel and aluminum, the US is now preparing to implement protectionist measures against Chinese products valued at around USD60 billion. This direction will likely add significant pressure to global trade, thus, KResearch views that all eyes should be closely kept on negotiations between the US and EU, both being among the largest economies in the world. Details on those negotiations are expected to be released before the relevant ‘safeguard tariffs’ on steel and aluminum become effective at the end of next week. 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