It has been widely anticipated that China will maintain their proactive and prudent fiscal and monetary policies as implemented in 4Q13 into next year, aimed at sustaining GDP growth of 7.2 percent, or somewhere within 7.0-7.5 percent.
However, that growth target might be undermined by some difficulties, particularly whether the US and European economies will recover at a robust pace or not, given that these markets are important to Chinese exports. Concerns toward stability within China's financial system, as well as various measures vis-à-vis financial reform that could inhibit their economic performance next year as well.
It is expected that the People's Bank of China may restrain its easing monetary policy to allow better control over liquidity in the system, along with promoting commercial banks to enhance their operational efficiency. Moreover, the Chinese government will press ahead with comprehensive economic reforms to expedite urbanization, overhaul the manufacturing sector and promote international economic cooperation, with a goal of achieving sustainable long-term economic growth.
Favorable economic prospects there may help bolster Thai exports in the Chinese market to grow perhaps 3.3 percent in 2014, or within a range of 0.5-7.5 percent. However, we will have to adjust our export structure over the long-term, so that it is consistent with China's plans to push their industrial manufacturing sector toward an even higher level of technology.
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