17 Jan 2022 International Economy China’s 4Q21 Economy Grew at Slowest Rate of 4.0% YoY in 2021, but 2022 GPD Growth Projected at 5.0% (Business Brief No.3963) คะแนนเฉลี่ย คะแนนเฉลี่ย 5 stars 4 stars 3 stars 2 stars 1 star The Chinese economy grew 8.1 percent YoY during 2021, bettering the government’s set target of at least 6.0 percent YoY. However, it reported the lowest growth at 4.0 percent YoY during 4Q21 due to a number of factors. These include the low base of the previous year, hefty debts, persistent slowdown in the property sector, Omicron-driven COVID-19, which led to the reimposition of lockdown measures as part of the government’s zero-COVID strategy, and higher manufacturing costs. Concurrently, the relevant Chinese authorities opted to use monetary policy, aimed at bolstering liquidity and economic growth by trimming the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) that financial institutions must hold for the second time in 2021 by 0.5 percent, effective December 15, 2021. Moreover, the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered by 0.05 percent to 3.8 percent on December 20, 2021, representing the first cut in 20 months since April 2020. Meanwhile, China’s private consumption continued to thrive despite some lockdown measures to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. In 4Q21, the Caixin Services PMI, a private survey that gauges China’s smaller firms, increased within a range of 52.1-53.8 after slipping below 50 to 46.7 for the first time in 2021 during August. The manufacturing sector was persistently pressured by higher production costs although the energy crisis began to subside. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which gauges ex-factoring product costs, remains at an elevated level. It hit a record high of 13.5 percent YoY in October, before dropping to 10.3 percent YoY in December, attributable partly to ebbing demand for construction materials such as cement and steel during winter, plus declines in commodity prices. Fixed-asset investment in the manufacturing sector and hi-tech industry reported favorable growth, while investment in the infrastructure and property sectors grew at a slower rate as a result of China’s “three red lines” policy, aimed at reducing debts incurred by property companies and setting maximum limits for commercial banks to extend loans to property developers and home buyers. On the international front, China reported the highest trade surplus since it was first recorded in 1950 despite the protracted trade war. Its trade surplus reached USD676 billion, representing a 29.1 percent YTD, YoY growth. China’s 2021 exports and imports grew 29.9 percent YTD, YoY, and 30.1 percent YTD, YoY, respectively. Looking into 2022, the Chinese economy will continue to be pressured by external factors, namely ongoing geopolitical conflicts, and internal risks such as the COVID-19 outbreak, persistent sluggishness in the property sector, and a regulatory crackdown that is expected to be tightened, especially on monopolies and businesses related to common prosperity. In spite of this, it is believed that China will attempt to maintain its economic growth at around 5.0 percent, achieved through proactively easing its monetary and fiscal policies. Given this, KResearch expects that the Chinese economy will grow 5.0 percent or within a range of 4.8—5.4 percent during 2022. View full article Login / Register Or Enter the code from the poll Annotation This research paper is published for general public. It is made up of various sources. Trustworthy, but the company can not authenticate. reliability The information may be changed at any time without prior notice. Data users need to be careful about the use of information. The Company will not be liable to any user or person for any damages arising from such use. The information in this report does not constitute an offer. Or advice on business decisions Anyhow. International Economy China Related Analysis View all 14 Mar 2018 International Economy Thailand must brace for trade disputes between the US, EU and China, etc. (Current Issue No. 2905) The US is pressing ahead with trade measures against trade partners globally. In addition to their new ‘safeguard tariffs’ on imported solar panels and large washing machines imposed early in 2018, and more recently on imported steel and aluminum, the US is now preparing to implement protectionist measures against Chinese products valued at around USD60 billion. This direction will likely add significant pressure to global trade, thus, KResearch views that all eyes should be closely kept on negotiations between the US and EU, both being among the largest economies in the world. Details on those negotiations are expected to be released before the relevant ‘safeguard tariffs’ on steel and aluminum become effective at the end of next week. If the EU and China are exempted from these new tariffs, prevailing anxiety will ease. But to the contrary, without such exemptions, China and the EU may opt to implement their own trade protectionist measures against the US, as well. This situation would likely escalate into further actions and reactions, incurring significant damage to trade that could spill over to other regions of the world.... 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