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6 Nov 2015

International Economy

China’s 13th Five-Year Plan Scraps One-Child Policy, Focus on Reforms/International Role (Current Issue No. 2672 Full Ed.)

Chinese authorities have unveiled their 13th Five-Year Plan involving a series of social and economic initiatives for 2016-2020. Amid prolonged economic softening, the Chinese state has set its sights on pushing the GDP higher and doubling per capita income within 10 years, 2010-2020. This means that five years from now, China must achieve an average of 6.5 percent GDP growth, p.a., to realize that goal. Over the next two years, we believe that China will continue with monetary and fiscal policies intended to bolster their economy.
The 13th Five-Year Plan also includes other noteworthy points:
  • Abolition of the One-Child Policy

KResearch holds the view that this change will have only limited impact within its five-year term, since changes in demographic structure take time. But within 10-20 years, a larger population will begin to impinge on domestic consumption and investment, especially in the education and housing sectors.

  • A Move toward the “New Normal”
The Chinese government continues to give a priority to financial sector and state enterprise structural reforms. The new blueprint includes capital market development to reduce obstacles facing businesses, notably SMEs, in accessing funding, increase of the Yuan global reach, and improvement of operational efficiency at state enterprises, etc.
  • Enhancement of Global Economic Power via Infrastructural Investments
Chinese state strategies have been devised to elevate China's role in the world's community – e.g., the One Belt, One Road program, which will help facilitate its future trade, investment and economic power.

For Thailand, social and economic development in China per the 13th Five-Year Plan seems to be accompanied by developments that may create opportunities for Thai companies, but it will be necessary for them to make adjustments to their marketing concepts and tactics to best accommodate socioeconomic changes there, as well as new consumer trends in the making.

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International Economy